Dad of the year

A safer way to split wood.

#1 찬 곳에서 자면 입 돌아간다?

신체가 보내는 신호 안면마비증상(facial nerve palsy) 이유?

   일교차가 클수록 감기를 비롯한 각종 질환에 쉽게 노출된다. 옷을 든든하게 입어 체온을 유지함과 동시에 면역력이 떨어지지 않도록 체력 관리에도 신경 써야 한다. 면역력이 약해지면 그 틈을 타고 바이러스가 침투하기 쉽다. 그중에서도 특히 기온과 밀접한 관련이 있는 안면마비 증상을 주의해야 한다. 

microbiologynutsandbolts.co.uk

edited by kcontents

기온차가 높을수록 발병 위험이 높은 안면마비 질환을 앓는 환자가 증가하는 추세다. 실제로 건강보험심사평가원 조사에 따르면 안면신경마비 환자는 2011년 3만8000여 명에서 2016년 4만5000여 명으로 5년 사이에 약 20% 늘었다.

바노바기 성형외과 오창현 원장은 “요즘처럼 일교차가 크고 갑자기 추워질 때는 면역력이 약해져 각종 질환으로 고생하는 환자가 많다”며 “그중에서도 안면마비는 기온차가 심할 때 발생하기 쉽기 때문에 평소 눈과 안면부위 떨림 등 증상에 각별한 주의를 기울여야 한다”고 말했다. 

안면마비는 기온과 밀접한 관련이 있다. 흔히 사람들이 ‘추운 데서 자면 입 돌아간다’라고 하는 말은 틀린 말이 아니다. 기온이 낮으면 얼굴 근육이 긴장하고 혈관이 수축하면서 안면부위 혈액순환이 원활하지 못하기 때문이다. 

최근 해외 연구에 따르면, 전날과의 기온차가 섭씨 2.25도 이상일 때 안면마비 발병 위험도가 2배 이상 높다. 실제로 기온이 10도 이상 차이 나면 우리 신체 내에서는 혈관이 수축하거나 팽창하는 것을 주관하는 자율신경계에 급격한 교란이 일어난다.

안면마비는 얼굴 근육의 움직임을 지배하는 안면신경 손상이 주원인이다. 이 안면마비의 대표적인 증상 중 하나가 바로 안면비대칭이다. 만약 안면마비를 방치해 신경 손상률이 70% 이상일 경우 얼굴 근육이 틀어지는 안면비대칭으로 이어져 큰 후유증을 남길 수 있다.

안면비대칭은 부정교합에 따른 저작 기능 장애, 소화불량 등 기능적 문제에서부터 대인기피 및 우울증을 불러와 삶의 질을 크게 떨어뜨릴 수 있다. 특히 겨울철에는 눈 떨림 현상을 겪는 사람이 많은데, 이를 날씨가 추운 탓이라며 가볍게 넘기는 경우가 많다. 여러 원인이 있겠지만 안면마비의 전조증상 중 하나가 눈 떨림 현상이다.

체온이 떨어지면 면역력도 낮아지는 것처럼 체온이 1도 상승하면 면역력은 약 5배 증가한다. 따라서 일상 속 생활 습관 개선을 통해 면역력을 키우는 것이 중요하다. 예를 들어 운동하며 땀 흘리는 것, 일정 시간 햇볕을 쐬는 행동 등이 도움 될 수 있다. 더불어 혈액의 흐름을 방해할 수 있는 기름지고 자극적인 음식을 피하는 것이 좋다.

하지만 대부분 현대인들은 바쁜 일상에 쫓겨 피곤함과, 스트레스에 시달린다. 또한 부족한 수면 시간으로 인해 면역력이 약해질 수밖에 없다. 이에 눈 떨림 현상을 비롯, 안면 부위에 나타나는 다양한 증상을 단순 피로감으로 치부해 치료 적기를 놓치기 쉽다.

안면마비를 1년 이상 오래 방치하게 되면 결국 안면비대칭 등 2차 질환으로 이어진다. 이는 수술적 방법을 통해 근본적으로 해결할 수 있다. 안면비대칭은 얼굴의 중심선을 기준으로 어느 한 로 심하게 기울어져 있거나 상악, 하악이 나란하지 않은 경우를 말한다. 이럴 때는 얼굴 전체 골격 및 근육을 고려한 양악수술로 상악, 하악의 교합을 맞춰줘야 통증을 비롯한 심미적인 부분도 개선할 수 있다. 

오 원장은 또 “많은 현대인들은 바쁜 일상에 치여 면역력이 떨어질 수밖에 없는 환경에 놓여 있다. 안면마비 증상이 나타나도 오랫동안 방치하다 보니 안면비대칭을 겪는 환자가 늘고있다”며 “특히 양악수술은 안면비대칭이나 턱관절 장애 정도가 심한 경우에 진행하는 수술이라는 것을 인지하고 단순히 미용성형술로 생각하고 접근하는 것은 지양돼야 할 것”이라고 덧붙였다.

김문석 기자 kmseok@kyunghyang.com 스포츠경향

http://sports.khan.co.kr/sports/sk_index.html?art_id=201811080917003&sec_id=561801#csidxa38db498043b909b4c2052f038ec5e2 

#2 You have to follow through: Attaining behavioral change goals predicts volitional personality change

Article in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · October 2018 with 34 Reads

DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000221

medium.com

edited by kcontents

Abstract

Prior research has found that people’s desires to change their personality traits predict corresponding subsequent trait growth over time. However, few studies have examined the processes through which people can volitionally change their personality traits. Thus, it remains unclear whether merely desiring change predicts trait growth or whether actively pursuing change is necessary. The present study was a 15-week intensive longitudinal design that tested whether engaging in trait-typical behaviors predicted trait change. Participants provided self-report ratings of their personality traits and were able to freely accept and complete weekly “challenges”—prewritten behavioral goals that would pull their thoughts, feelings, and behaviors in line with their desired traits. Results indicated that merely accepting behavioral challenges did not predict trait changes. Rather, only actually completing challenges (i.e., performing trait-typical behaviors) predicted trait change over time. Thus, merely wanting to change does not appear to be sufficient to evoke trait growth; successfully changing one’s personality traits may require actively and successfully implementing behaviors to change oneself.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328522491_You_have_to_follow_through_Attaining_behavioral_change_goals_predicts_volitional_personality_change

kcontents

8 Construction Tech Trends To Watch in 2018

TECHNOLOGY is having an ever-greater impact on the construction sector. Many ideas that were once thought of as gimmicks - or even the stuff of science-fiction - are now being steadily incorporated into the mainstream industry, with new and practical applications for technology being developed at a rapid pace.

    Here we’ve shortlisted the 8 construction technology trends to keep your eyes on in 2018.

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 무인 주행 장비 기술

With a drive to improve efficiency and safety on construction sites, autonomous vehicles are gaining traction and could be seen on some projects in 2018.

Just as driverless cars promise to revolutionise the way in which we travel, autonomous vehicles could transform our building site environments – helping to address a shortage of skilled labour and enhancing productivity.

Above: Autonomous vehicles could transform construction sites and address shortages of 

skilled labour (image courtesy of Built Robotics)

Several developers have already created prototypes of autonomous construction vehicles ranging from bulldozers and tractors, to cranes and excavators.

While entry costs and regulations remain serious barriers to adoption, several observers believe that we may see self-driving vehicles on construction sites before we see them on roads – particularly as sites are highly controlled environments.

VIRTUAL + AUGMENTED REALITY 가상 및 증강 현실 기술

Next up is a technology area that has been on construction’s radar for several years, and indeed made it onto our 2017 tech roundup; virtual and augmented reality.

These visual technologies continue to be “one to watch” in 2018 as they gain greater traction within the construction industry and become valuable tools for project teams and end users alike.

                  Above: Enveloping 360 pop-up tents or rooms allow designers to step inside their 

                  buildings (image courtesy of Igloo Vision)

Virtual Reality – or VR – creates an immersive environment in a headset or cardboard viewer, or even an enveloping 360 pop-up tent or room – enabling contractors, designers and end users to step into their buildings in the future – either during key stages of construction, or in their completed states.

Prominent examples of this in practice include London’s 22 Bishopsgate skyscraper and the impressive "Tomorrowland" at the Shanghai Disney Resort.

Augmented Reality – or AR – is also finding its feet, providing a graphic layer to our real-world view and offering a wide array of data to site personnel – from design information and specifications, to statistics on productivity and health and safety warnings.

Whilst VR and AR have long been touted for their future potential, they are now being used in anger and are set to drive clear benefits for project teams in 2018.

EXOSKELETONS 동력형 외골격 장비

Exoskeletons are a technology that has been long-touted for its potential to make construction more efficient. Like many of the technologies on this list, they might sound more like the stuff of science fiction, than a credible real-world application. However, the wearable mechanical suits - that are worn outside clothing to help with lifting heavy equipment, machinery, or supplies - are now becoming a reality.

                     Above: Exoskeletons have been specifically developed for the construction industry 

                     (image courtesy of Lockheed Martin).

Designed to "augment with humans" and help them overcome physical weaknesses, these suits could aid construction workers with everyday mundane, repetitive tasks, supporting better physical health and helping to combat conditions such as arthritis and hand-arm vibration.

Around 40 companies are now manufacturing exoskeletons worldwide, so you may well see them on a site near you in 2018.

ADVANCED MATERIALS 발전된 재료

("자기 치유 콘크리트"를 포함한 많은 혁신 기술에는 물이 붕괴되는 콘크리트 틈으로 유입될 때 발아되는 석회암 정련 박테리아가 포함되어 있다.)

The world of construction materials is advancing at an incredible rate as new technologies enter the construction sector, enabling further research and development.

In the last 12 months we’ve reported on many innovations including "Self-healing concrete" – which contains calcite-precipitating bacteria which germinate when water enters the cracks in decaying concrete, filling the emerging air gaps.

We have also seen "Kinetic paving" which harvests energy from the footsteps of pedestrians to generate electricity, “4D-printed structures” that have the ability to re-shape or self-assemble over time by virtue of how they are formed and how different elements of their composition respond in differing conditions and “smog-eating buildings” coated in photocatalytic titanium dioxide that reacts with light to neutralise pollutants in the air of the some of the world’s most congested cities.

UAVs 드론 기술의 발전

                      Above: Drones are becoming widely used in the construction industry (image courtesy of Aibotix).

The rise of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the construction industry – often referred to as drones – was featured on our 2017 list and is set to significantly pick-up pace in 2018.

UAVs are now being used for health and safety inspections, progress reporting and most-prominently in site surveying; capturing accurate data on large areas of land in just a few minutes and accessing potentially hazardous zones with ease, keeping surveyors themselves save.

While there has been much publicity about the potential for drones to carry out deliveries, it is the construction industry that is predicted to be the biggest user of commercial drones in the coming years.

"The construction industry is predicted to be the biggest user of commercial drones in the coming years"

Regulation of UAVs remains a hot-topic, particularly as the rate of technology advancement often pulls ahead of legislation and its enforcement. Falling entry costs and the availability of UAVs to a mass market has only served to compound this issue.

ROBOTICS 건설 로봇

The successful application of robotics in the construction sector could enhance efficiency, productivity and safety in many instances, making it a highly-attractive prize for those that see its value.

                    Above: An "in-situ fabricator" developed at the National Centre of Competence in Research 

                   (NCCR) Digital Fabrication in Zurich ( image courtesy of NCCR Digital Fabrication).  

The last 12 months has seen further iterations of brick and track-laying robots and even a machine capable of tying rebar unveiled – the latter being part of a series of in-situ fabricators.

The challenge for this area again remains the entry-cost and its credibility. Many struggle to recognise and accept the application of robots, seeing the concept as science fiction.

3D PRINTING 3D 프린팅 구조물

                     Above: 3D printing of full-scale houses is now possible (image courtesy of Apis Cor).

The use of 3D printing technology to produce physical objects has advanced significantly in construction over the last 12 months – at all levels of scale.

Accurate digital design information allows 3D printing to be used for everything from rapid prototyping, component manufacture and scale modelling, to full scale printing of house and bridge components. The technology is even being considered as part of serious and steadily advancing proposals by scientists to build a human habitation on Mars in the next 100 years

INTERNET OF THINGS 사물 인터넷의 활용

We end with a technology that may have the power to change the industry more than any other; the Internet of Things.

Put briefly, the Internet of Things (or IoT) is a network of physical devices that are embedded with sensors and network connectivity to allow those objects to connect and exchange data. The data received is collated and analysed to inform future decisions.

In construction, the Internet of Things is being used in many ways such as remote operation and monitoring, supply replenishment, construction tool tracking and in equipment servicing and repair.

The key prize for the construction sector is “big data” – the ability to hone and perfect the built environment that we construct and operate by having an aggregate, trend-level view of how it is performing. Such data can be obtained from building management systems or sensor nodes integrated within built assets.

In the future, the Internet of Things could impact how we construct all buildings and infrastructure leading to more efficient and responsive cities and an improved built environment, impacting everyone’s quality of life and the development of our societies.

Images courtesy of NCCR Digital Fabrication, Built Robotics, Rio Tinto, Grendelkhan, Komatsu, Igloo Vision, Daqri, Lockheed Martin, Suit X, Ekso, Nemesi, Pavegen, Self-Assembly Lab, MIT, Stratasys, Autodesk, Elegant Embellishments, 3D Robotics, Leica Geosystems, Aibotix, Apis Cor, DUS Architects, SOM, Foster + Partners, Volvo Construction Equipment and Business Wire. 

We welcome you sharing our content to inspire others, but please be nice and play by our rules.

https://www.theb1m.com/video/8-construction-tech-trends-to-watch-in-2018

kcontents

[데일리건설뉴스 Daily Construction News] 2018년 11월9일(금) CONPAPER 

건설매거진 [콘페이퍼]2018년도 10월호

Construction Magazine

https://blog.naver.com/hkc0929/221376513879

디자인올 Designall

http://designall.tistory.com

Engitalk

http://engitalk.tistory.com

김종갑 한전사장, "영국 원전사업 수주전략 다시 짜야"

도시바 뉴젠 사업권 포기로 수주 전략에 수정 불가피

협상 대상 도시바→영국 정부로 

  김종갑 한국전력공사 사장이 영국 무어사이드 원전사업 수주를 위해 영국 정부를 대상으로 전략의 방향을 다시 잡을 것으로 보인다.

9일 공기업계에 따르면 일본 도시바가 영국 무어사이드 원전사업권을 보유한 자회사인 뉴젠을 청산하기로 결정하면서 한국전력공사는 수주 전략에 수정이 필요해졌다. 뉴젠은 도시바가 지분 100%를 들고 있다.

영국 무어사이드 원전 건설예정지 및 무어사이드 원전 조감도/globalconstructionreview.com/theguardian

한전, 21조원 규모 '도시바 영국 무어사이드 원전' 사업권 획득 무산 UK nuclear power station plans scrapped as Toshiba pulls out

http://conpaper.tistory.com/72604

edited by kcontents

한국전력은 2017년 10월부터 뉴젠을 인수하기 위해 도시바와 계속 협상을 이어왔지만 도시바가 뉴젠을 청산하며 무어사이드 원전사업에서 완전히 발을 빼기로 했다.

한국전력이 앞으로 무어사이드 원전사업을 수주하기 위해 협상해야 할 대상이 도시바에서 영국 정부로 바뀌게 된 것이다.

한국전력 관계자는 “도시바가 뉴젠을 청산하면서 한국전력은 앞으로 영국 정부를 대상으로 협상을 이어가게 됐다”며 “기존에도 한국전력이 산업통상자원부와 함께 영국 정부와 교섭해왔기 때문에 계획이 지연되는 등 큰 차질이 생기지는 않을 것”이라고 말했다.

한국전력은 뉴젠 인수를 추진할 때도 동시에 영국 정부와 꾸준히 협상해 왔던 만큼 한국과 영국의 공동 실무기구 등 기존 관계를 바탕으로 영국 정부와 소통을 이어갈 것으로 보인다.

김종갑 한국전력 사장은 그동안 “영국 무어사이드 투자·운영 방식이 바뀐 데다 원전은 10년 동안 건설해 60년 동안 전기 장사로 투자금을 회수해야 한다”며 “오랜 시간을 들여야 하는 만큼 신중히 검토하고 있다”고 말해왔다.

영국 원전산업 규제가 변경돼 한국전력은 이에 따른 무어사이드 원전의 수익성과 리스크를 살펴보고 있다.

영국 무어사이드 원전사업은 사업비가 21조 원에 이르는 프로젝트로 원자로 3기를 2030년까지 짓는 것을 목표로 삼고 있다.

김종갑 한국전력공사 사장.

영국 정부는 6월 원전사업에 RAB모델을 새로 도입하겠다고 발표했다. RAB모델은 규제자산 기반 모델이라고도 불리며 정부기관이 일부 지분에 투자하는 방식이다. 사업자의 비용 부담은 줄어들지만 그만큼 기대수익도 낮아진다.

그러나 영국 정부가 RAB모델을 원전사업에 적용할 때 기간, 정부 참여도, 지분율 등 구체적 사항들을 밝히고 있지 않아 한국전력도 무어사이드 원전사업에 참여조건을 결정하지 못하고 있다.

한국전력은 RAB모델과 관련해 도시바 및 뉴젠과 함께 ‘공동 타당성 연구’를 진행했지만 당분간은 이러한 연구도 한국전력이 단독으로 진행해야 할 것으로 보인다.

영국 정부가 무어사이드원전 사업을 다시 공개입찰에 부칠 가능성도 점쳐지고 있다.

공개입찰이 진행되면 그동안 한국전력의 경쟁자로 꼽혔던 중국 광동핵전공사(CGN), 캐나다 브룩필드자산운용 등 회사들과 경쟁하게 될 수 있다.

한국전력 관계자는 “공개입찰 등 구체적으로 영국 정부가 어떤 결정을 내릴지는 알 수 없다”며 “한국전력은 무어사이드 원전사업을 추진할 수 있도록 영국 정부를 상대로 최선을 다해 협상할 것”이라고 말했다. 

[비즈니스포스트 김수연 기자]

케이콘텐츠

SIX FIELD-TESTED TIPS TO RETAINING VALUABLE EMPLOYEES

Keeping talented workers happy saves time and money in the long run, says BUILDER blogger Charles Petersheim. Here are his six strategies for keeping turnovers at bay.

By Charles Petersheim

Adobe Stock

edited by kcontents

If anything is a more important attribute for a small builder than the ability to identify, admit, and address personal shortcomings, I haven’t found it.

Whether stemming from client feedback, or self-evaluation, the ability and willingness to improve based on best available information – personally hurtful as it may be – seems to be an important component of staying alive in the jungle of new home construction. I have found that this trait goes a long way in helping to retain valuable employees.

For me, the incalculable cost of employee turnover was clear long before I acted on the information that was readily available. My company, Catskill Farms, has had between five and 12 employees over the years, all cross-talented and hard to replace. Each time we lost one, I could count on spending five to nine months hiring the wrong person, often multiple times, training delays, general confusion, and a diversion of focus for me. In other words, going backwards.

Catskill Farms house/http://lawlormediagroup.blogspot.com

edited by kcontents

The final club over the head (we small businesspeople have a well-earned reputation for hard-headedness) was losing employees during the height of the recession when there were no construction jobs and I was still having a hard time retaining help. That was a wakeup call I finally heard loud and clear.

What was I doing wrong that allowed us to build up our subcontractor network and relationships, while failing to do the same with my employees?

As a small home builder with a steep learning curve in a very finicky Catskill Mountains second home market for NYC metro area clients, I was used to administrative hard work and heavy lifting. To begin to retain help, I very simply had to lower my expectations, lower my bar of what day-to-day success looks like (without tainting quality), and at the same time, improve my compensation packages. The answer to my problem seemed perplexing – can you really lower expectations and improve overall performance?

I also realized I had to improve as a manager. The latter is just as hard to swallow as the former.

The concept of accepting less and paying more was a difficult self-correction for a hard-charging small businessperson. But the notion of ‘over-paying’ doesn’t consider the realpolitik of the situation. A more accurate reading of the formula for calculating today’s value of labor includes assessing the cost and risk of investing in labor and then letting that investment over time increase in value until it catches up and eventually exceed its initial cost. I learned that eventually the value of the retained employee went up much faster, caught up to the cost, and exceeded it, paying ever-increasing dividends over time.

The programs I instituted weren’t cheap, but were laser focused on the needs of our workforce, which I understood well. We had steady year round work, and reliable paychecks, which still wasn’t enough to stem the turnover. The solutions we found were as follows:

salesforce.com

edited by kcontents

Even considering all the above is no guarantee of success. People move on and priorities change. Blowups and blowouts happen. Better offers materialize. But at Catskill Farms, we have stemmed the tide of turnover and created a home where employees see themselves residing for the near and far future. We provide a steady job that can help them navigate life’s ups and downs, a job that they can leverage against the curve balls of life. We are always out there recruiting, but now it’s as much for future growth and much less for plugging the hole in the dam.

What I learned, grudgingly, is that you don’t have to be wrong, to not be right. And it pays to be nice as often as you can.

https://www.builderonline.com/building/six-field-tested-tips-to-retaining-valuable-employees_o

kcontents

The 33rd Trampoline Gymnastics World Championships 

Athletes of China team celebrate their victory in the team all-around final at the 33rd Trampoline Gymnastics World Championships in St.Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)/Source: AP

33rd Trampoline Gymnastics World Championships, St. Petersburg (Russia), 7-10 November 2018. China won the first world title of the competition. The Chinese beat Portugal (Silver Medallist) and Canada (Bronze Medallist).

CANADA PLAYER/timescolonist.com

2018년 러시아 세계트램폴린선수권 대회

중국팀, 첫 우승

포르투갈 2위, 캐나다 3위

KCONTENTS

Fed leaves rates unchanged, notes slowing in business investment

Jeff Cox

The Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, unanimously approved keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.

Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, from left, Richard Clarida, Chairman Jerome H. Powell, Randal Quarles and Lael Brainard attend an open meeting on Oct. 31 in Washington. (Erik S. Lesser / EPA/Shutterstock)/latimes.com

edited by kcontents

The Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, unanimously approved keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.

There was no mention of the volatility that has gripped financial markets since mid-October in the central bank’s statement.

The committee noted in the statement that the unemployment rate “has declined” since the September meeting.

The statement noted that the “growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.”

There was no mention of the volatility that has gripped financial markets since mid-October in the central bank’s statement.

The committee noted in the statement that the unemployment rate “has declined” since the September meeting.

The statement noted that the “growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.”

In its first meeting since October’s market turmoil and this week’s midterm elections, the Federal Reserve voted to maintain the current level of its benchmark interest rate.

The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, unanimously approved keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent. Markets figured the central bank would hold the line at this meeting and probably approve a quarter-point hike in December, which would be the fourth of the year.

cbsnews.com

edited by kcontents

There were a few tweaks to the way policymakers are viewing economic conditions.

On the upside, the committee noted that the unemployment rate “has declined” since the September meeting. The Labor Department last week reported that the headline jobless level was at 3.7 percent, the lowest since December 1969.

However, the statement noted that the “growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.”

There was no detail or data given for why officials see investment declining, though companies reported during third-quarter earnings season that some of their investment plans have been curtailed due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.

The economy otherwise has been humming along strongly, and the FOMC reiterated its belief that “economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.” GDP growth this year has averaged 3.3 percent for the first three quarters and is expected to come in around 3 percent for the final three-month period of 2018.

“We shouldn’t be surprised by either comment as they are simply a summary of the recent data,” Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note. “Interestingly, there was no mention of the softer housing data. Moreover, there was no mention of the sell-off in the stock market in October which implies that Fed officials were largely willing to shrug it off.”

No nod to market volatility

Volatility has gripped financial markets since mid-October, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made remarks that Wall Street took as hawkish for the pace of future rate hikes.

“Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral,” Powell said during an interview with PBS. “We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”

The FOMC at its September meeting actually voted to remove the word “accommodative” from its description of the current policy path. Powell and others have said the word is no longer useful in describing how the Fed is proceeding.

Since December 2015, the central bank has approved eight quarter-point rate hikes, bringing the benchmark rate to around a 10-year high.

Powell’s statements were followed by a prolonged stock market sell-off and a rise in short-term rates. The 2-year Treasury note eclipsed a decade high Thursday and the benchmark 10-year note is around 3.22 percent, near its high point since 2011.

With November’s expected pause in rate hikes behind it, the market now will turn its sights toward December. Traders in the fed funds futures market are implying about a 93 percent probability for a hike at the year’s final meeting.

The market and the Fed differ on the path in 2019.

Fed officials at the September meeting pointed to three increases next year, but the market currently is pricing in only two. The September projections indicated at least one more hike in 2020, which the market also does not see.

The gap is significant as this week’s FOMC meeting marked the last time that Powell will not have a news conference afterward. The Fed has not hiked rates during the current cycle at a meeting when the chair did not take questions afterward. Starting in January, Powell will hold a conference after each of the committee’s eight meetings each year. That makes each gathering “live” in terms of its potential for a rate move — either up or down.

         EUR/USD Rate Outlook Hinges Of Fed Forward-Guidance/bitcoins.alldigitools.com

         edited by kcontents

“A December rate hike appears to be a likely event at this point, but the outlook ahead is very different as the market and the Fed have differing views on how many rate hikes are in the cards for next year,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

Along with the move Thursday to keep the benchmark rate anchored at its current level, the committee voted to maintain the rate the Fed pays on excess bank reserves at 2.2 percent.

Market participants have been watching the IOER rate, as it is used as a guide for the funds rate. The two rates are now exactly equal, and if there is an appearance that reserves are getting scarce in the banking system and driving up rates, that could cause the Fed to halt the run-off of its balance sheet.

The central bank is allowing a capped level of $50 billion in proceeds to run off each month from the portfolio of bonds it purchased during its efforts to stimulate the economy. Some market participants expect the Fed will approve a 20 basis point increase for the IOER rate in December as a way to keep the funds rate from getting too close to the top end of its range. The current 2.2 percent funds rate is just 5 basis points away from the upper bound of the range.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

 kcontents

김동연·장하성, 1년 6개월여 만 동시교체..."후임에 홍남기·김수현"

정부 초대 '경제투톱' 1년반 만에 퇴진

'문책·쇄신' 복합적 요인 분석

신임 국조실장에 노형욱 2차장 승진

靑 사회수석엔 김연명 중앙대 교수 

   문재인 대통령이 9일 김동연 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관과 장하성 청와대 정책실장에 대한 동시 교체 카드를 꺼내 들었다.

        동시 교체된 김동연 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관과 장하성 청와대 정책실장/한국경제

        edited by kcontents

이로써 현 정부 초대 경제 사령탑 역할을 했던 김 부총리와 장 실장은 1년 6개월여 만에 퇴진하게 됐다.

김 부총리와 장 실장이 한꺼번에 교체된 것은 가시적인 효과를 내지 못하는 경제 현실을 고려한 쇄신의 의미를 지니는 것으로 풀이된다. 두 사람이 경제정책을 놓고 잇단 엇박자를 노출해왔다는 점에서 사실상 문책성 인사라는 분석도 제기된다.

문 대통령은 이날 김 부총리 후임에 경제부처 관료 출신인 홍남기(58·행정고시 29회) 국무조정실장을 내정하고, 장 실장 후임에 김수현(56) 청와대 사회수석을 임명했다고 윤영찬 청와대 국민소통수석이 브리핑에서 밝혔다.

        홍남기 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관 후보자/김수현 신임 청와대 정책실장

        edited by kcontents

새 국무조정실장에는 노형욱(56·행정고시 30회) 국무조정실 2차장이, 청와대 사회수석에는 대통령 직속 정책기획위원회의 포용사회분과위원장 겸 미래정책연구단장인 김연명(57) 중앙대 교수가 각각 발탁됐다.

강원 춘천 출신인 홍 부총리 후보자는 춘천고와 한양대 경제학과를 졸업하고 한양대에서 경영학 석사를, 영국 샐포드대에서 경제학 석사를 각각 취득했다.

옛 경제기획원에서 관료 생활의 첫발을 내디딘 그는 기획재정부 정책조정국장을 지냈고, 박근혜 정부 청와대 기획비서관과 미래창조과학부 제1차관을 역임했다.

김 신임 정책실장은 경북 영덕 출신으로, 경북고와 서울대 도시공학과를 졸업하고 같은 학교에서 도시공학 석사와 환경대학원 박사 학위를 각각 받았다.

노무현정부 당시 청와대 국민경제비서관·사회정책비서관, 환경부 차관을 역임한 뒤 서울연구원장을 지낸 바 있다.

        김연명 신임 청와대 사회수석/노형욱 신임 국무조정실장

노 신임 국무조정실장은 전북 순창 출신으로, 광주제일고와 연세대 정치외교학과를 졸업하고 프랑스 파리정치대에서 국제경제학 석사 학위를 받았다.

기획재정부 행정예산심의관·사회예산심의관을 거쳐 재정관리관을 지냈다.

김 신임 청와대 사회수석은 제물포고와 중앙대 사회복지학과를 졸업하고 같은 학교에서 사회정책 분야에서 석·박사 학위를 취득했다. 충남 예산 출신이다.

한국사회복지정책학회 회장을 역임했고, 현 정부 인수위 역할을 했던 국정기획자문위원회의 사회분과위원장을 맡았었다.

(서울=연합뉴스) 이상헌 기자 

케이콘텐츠