美 달러와 엮인 사우디의 비극 Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis(VIDEO)

Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis

기름 팔면 팔수록 손해

페그제 탓에 환율하락 수혜 누릴 수 없어

A man stands on a platform on an oil and gas terminal on January 2003 in n the Persian Gulf off of 

Ras Al Tanoura, Saudi Arabia (Photo by Reza/Getty Images)

1987~2015 Oil price, Saudi Arabia

[관련기사]

점점 심화되는 사우디의 재정 악화, 건설프로젝트 추진 난관 봉착

http://conpaper.tistory.com/35099

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   산유국의 환율과 국제유가는 불가분의 관계다. 유가가 하락하면 통화가치도 하락한다.

지난해 11월 이후 국제유가는 40%가량 하락했다. 니켈이나 구리 같은 원자재도 값이 비슷한 수준으로 내려갔다. 이 기간 기름이나 상품 수출 국가의 달러 대비 통화가치도 가파르게 하락했다. 석유수출국기구(OPEC) 회원국이 아닌 국가로는 가장 많은 원유를 생산하는 러시아 루블화는 30% 가치가 떨어졌다. 노르웨이나 캐나다도 12~15%가량 빠졌다.

 

원유수출업자는 유가가 하락해도 숨쉴 구멍이 있다. 환율 하락이 국제유가 급락 영향을 상쇄하기 때문이다. 가령 러시아의 원유 수출업자는 원유를 생산할 때 가치가 하락한 루블화로 지급하는 대신 원유 수출대금은 달러로 받을 수 있기 때문이다. 사이먼 Q. 에반스 코메르츠방크 신흥시장 스트레지스트는 “재정부 장관은 유가가 떨어지는 과정에서 루블화 가치 하락을 반길 것”이라고 설명했다.

하지만 산유국 가운데서 미국 달러화와 가치를 연동하는 페그제(고정환율제)를 사용하는 나라에서는 얘기가 달라진다. 유가가 하락하는 과정에서도 환율이 되레 오르는 현상이 벌어지기 때문이다. 중동 산유국의 맏형 사우디아라비아나 아프리카 최대 산유국 나이지리아가 대표적이다. 유가 하락의 고통은 고스란히 받을 뿐 아니라 통화가치의 하락이 가져오는 수혜도 남들 얘기다. 이런 국가의 경제나 기업들은 이중의 고통을 감내하는 것이다.

나이지리아와 사우디아라비아 등 환율 페그제 국가에서 재정 수지의 감소가 정부의 재정과 가계, 기업에 직격탄이 될 것이라고 골드만삭스는 분석했다.

사우디 같은 나라가 페그제를 계속 유지할 수 있을까. 적어도 당분간 고통이 계속될 것 같다는 데 이견이 없다. 국제유가는 현재 배럴당 40달러 언저리다.

다음 주 4일 예정된 석유수출국기구(OPEC) 석유장관 회의를 앞두고 산유국들이 이번 회의에서도 산유량을 고수할 것이란 예상이 많다. 헤지펀드들의 유가 하락에 대한 베팅이 올해 들어 최고치를 기록했다. 유가 하락 기대감이 다시 유가 하락을 이끄는 힘으로 작용할 가능성이 크다.

에반스는 “사우디가 페그제를 유지하는 동안에는 기름을 팔아도 버는 수익이 점점 더 줄 것”이라고 말했다.

[이데일리 장순원 기자] (crew@edaily.co.kr)

Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis

The crash in oil prices is fanning the flames of revolt against Saudi Arabia inside the walls of OPEC.

video

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/economy/2015/10/21/middle-east-imf.cnnmoney

A war of words has broken out between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and disgruntled smaller oil producers like Venezuela and Algeria. The smaller countries want the cartel to hit the brakes on production to help lift depressed oil prices -- and their own struggling economies.

As the leading oil producer, the Saudis hold enormous sway over the oil cartel. Their long term bet is that by keeping oil prices low, they will squeeze American shale oil producers out of the game. That way, the Saudis can again regain market share lost to the U.S.

Just 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest oil producing nation, churning out nearly twice as much crude oil as the U.S. But American output has skyrocketed in recent years thanks to the shale revolution, which has completely reshaped the global energy equation. Today the U.S. produces nearly as much as Saudi Arabia.

The onslaught of U.S. oil has sent prices spiraling from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to around $40 a barrel currently.

Weaker OPEC members face off with Saudi Arabia

The collapse in oil prices is especially hurting less affluent OPEC members like Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Nigeria and Venezuela. They are all but begging the Saudis to shift strategy -- but so far their calls have gone unanswered.

"OPEC has never been more divided," said Fadel Gheit, an Oppenheimer analyst who has been closely covering the oil industry for 35 years.

Venezuela's oil minister warned that oil could plunge to $25 if OPEC doesn't act fast. Algeria has called for a price floor, while Ecuador's oil minister said the only way to balance the market is to cut production.

Nigeria's former central bank governor Muhammad Sanusi II recently told CNN that Saudi Arabia's decision to flood world markets with oil is a mistake. "It does not help them and it does not help anyone," he said.

Revolt could destroy OPEC

All the bellicosity from OPEC members is coming as the group is preparing for what should be an awkward gathering in Vienna on December 4 to decide on output. Few expect Saudi Arabia to cave to the demands of others, but get ready for more verbal fireworks.

The deep dissension threatens to destroy OPEC, at least as we know it.

"Of course, that's a risk," said Philipp Chladek, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who covers the oil and gas industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Saudis unlikely to budge

The 60% plunge in oil prices since June 2014 has slashed OPEC revenue by nearly $500 billion a year, according to the International Energy Agency.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia's official news agency reported that the country is ready to "cooperate with all oil producing and exporting countries."

But the comments didn't give any details or signal a new willingness to cut output and the kingdom has made similar remarks in the past.

A Saudi ministerial source told CNN's John Defterios the Saudis will not budge if Russia continues to produce nearly 11 million barrels per day, Mexico is not part of the non-OPEC equation and if Iraq refuses to live by an OPEC quota.

In other words, the status quo looks intact.

The Saudis are joined by rich neighbors like Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have the financial firepower to withstand cheap oil -- at least for a few more years.

The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, can also theoretically cut back on production. But they fear doing so will only cede more market share to the U.S., Russia and rival OPEC countries.

U.S. shale has reshaped the energy landscape

The real game changer here has been the U.S.

OPEC didn't see the shale revolution coming and now it lacks appealing options to respond to the resulting oil glut.

OPEC also seems to have underestimated shale's resiliency and flexibility. Last year's decision to keep production steady has not been a knockout punch to shale. And shale producers remain ready to ramp up production as soon as prices go higher.

"Shale technology has changed this industry forever. It's not going to disappear. It can only get better because it's based on technology. Time is not on OPEC's side," said Gheit, the Oppenheimer analyst.

The Saudis would love to get U.S. producers to agree to stop flooding the market with oil. The problem is that the U.S. energy industry, unlike OPEC, is not a cartel designed to fix prices.

"There is no Mr. Shale that Saudi Arabia can call. In the U.S., it's everybody on their own," said Bloomberg's Chladek.

--CNN emerging markets editor/anchor John Defterios contributed to this report.

 

CNNMoney (New York) November 23, 2015: 3:48 PM ET

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/23/investing/saudi-arabia-opec-revolt-oil-prices/

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