하버드대 "사회적 거리두기 2022년까지 장기화 가능성" VIDEO: Harvard Researchers Say Some Social Distancing May Be Needed Into 2022

Harvard Researchers Say Some Social Distancing May Be Needed Into 2022

By John Tozzi

Much is still unknown about the virus and humanity’s response

Infections could return after measures lifted, researchers say

Customers wearing protective masks and gloves stand in line outside a grocery store in Austin, Texas, on April 13. Photographer: Bronte Wittpenn/Bloomberg

하버드대 "사회적 거리두기 2022년까지 장기화 가능성"      전 세계 사람들은 코비드-19가 새롭게 급증하고 병원 시스템을 압도하는 것을 막기 위해 2022년까지 간헐적으로 어느 정도의 사회적 거리두기를 연습해야 할 것이라고 하버드 질병 연구진이 화요일 말했다. 사회적 조치를 한꺼번에 해제하는 것은 단순히 전염병의 정점을 지연시키고 잠재적으로 더 심각하게 만드는 위험을 초래할 수 있다고 과학자들은 화요일 사이언스지에 실린 기사에서 경고했다. 이 골치 아픈 전염병의 향방는 아직 대답하지 않은 질문에 달려 있을 것이다. 계절에 따라 바이러스의 확산이 바뀔까? 감염되면 어떤 면역이 생길까? 그리고 가벼운 질병을 일으키는 코로나비러스에 노출되면 코비드-19를 일으키는 병원체에 대한 보호가 되는가? 이러한 의문점들은 사회보장정책 때문에 전 세계 경제가 마비되는 것을 본 정부 지도자들에 의해 저울질되고 있다. 수백만 명의 사람들이 실직하고 집에 머무르면서, 미국 등지의 규제를 완화해야 한다는 압력이 커지고 있다. 그렇게 하는 것은 광범위한 실험과 같은 질병을 통제하기 위한 조치를 마련하느냐에 달려있다고 전문가들은 말한다. 하버드 연구원들은 컴퓨터 모델을 사용하여 전염병이 어떻게 발생하는지를 시뮬레이션했다. 한가지 가능성은 집중적인 공중 보건 탐정 작업에 따른 엄격한 사회적 거리감이 바이러스를 쫓아가 근절시킬 수 있다는 것이다. 2003년 발병을 일으킨 사스-Cov-1에서 그런 일이 일어났다. 그러나 새로운 병원체가 전세계적으로 200만 명에 육박하는 것으로 확인됨에 따라 그 결과는 점점 더 가능성이 낮아지고 있다고 연구원들은 썼다. 황기철 콘페이퍼 에디터 큐레이터 Ki Chul Hwang, conpaper editor, curator

edited by kcontents

People around the world might need to practice some level of social distancing intermittently through 2022 to stop Covid-19 from surging anew and overwhelming hospital systems, a group of Harvard disease researchers said Tuesday.

Lifting social-distancing measures all at once could risk simply delaying the epidemic’s peak and potentially making it more severe, the scientists warned in an article published Tuesday in the journal Science.

The course of the pandemic will depend on questions not yet answered: Will the virus’s spread change with the seasons? What immunity will people have after they’re infected? And does exposure to coronaviruses that cause mild illnesses confer any protection against the pathogen that causes Covid-19?

Those questions are being weighed by government leaders who have seen economies around the globe come to a standstill because of the social-distancing measures. With millions of people out of work and staying home, pressure is growing to loosen restrictions in the U.S. and elsewhere. Doing so, experts have said, will depend on having in place measures to control the disease, such as widespread testing.

The Harvard researchers used computer models to simulate how the pandemic might play out. One possibility is that strict social distancing followed by intensive public-health detective work could chase down and eradicate the virus. That’s what happened with SARS-CoV-1, which caused a 2003 outbreak. But with confirmed cases of the new pathogen approaching 2 million globally, that outcome is seen as increasingly unlikely, the researchers wrote.

Tom's Guide

edited by kcontents

Seasonal Illness

More likely is that the virus is here to stay like influenza, traveling the globe seasonally. In one model, 20 weeks of measures to limit spread were followed by an epidemic peak that was as great as an uncontrolled spread.

“The social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built,” the researchers said of that scenario. If the virus is more transmissible in colder months, delaying the peak into the autumn could exacerbate the strain on health-care systems, they wrote.

To avoid such outcomes, on-and-off social distancing measures might be needed until 2022, unless hospital capacity is increased, or effective vaccines or treatments are developed.

The authors don’t endorse a particular path forward but said they sought “to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/harvard-researchers-say-some-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022

Coronavirus: Social distancing fines to be reviewed | Nine News Australia

 kcontents