코로나바이러스, "사망자 수 1,500만 명에 이를 수도" 연구결과 15 MILLION people will die and the global economy will take a $2.3 TRILLION hit...
15 MILLION people will die and the global economy will take a $2.3 TRILLION hit from coronavirus in the BEST-CASE scenario, new study predicts
A man wearing a protective mask walks in front of a display board at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, amid warnings of a global meltdown because of coronavirus
Research by Australian National University lays out a range of virus outcomes
In the worst case, the global death toll could reach a staggering 68million
Some countries' economies could shrink by eight per cent in a global meltdown
By TIM STICKINGS FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 10:29 GMT, 6 March 2020 | UPDATED: 10:37 GMT, 6 March 2020
감염력 강한 코로나바이러스, "사망자 수 1,500만 명에 이를 수도" 연구결과 코로나바이러스로 인한 전세계 사망자 수는 최악의 경우 1,500만 명에 이를 수 있다고 새로운 연구 결과가 발표되었다. 호주 국립대학의 연구는 또한 세계 GDP는 '이런 저급'한 유행병에서도 23조 달러까지 줄어들 수 있다는 것을 분석했다. 가장 처참한 시나리오는, 영국과 미국에서 수십만 명의 사망자를 포함하여 6천 8백만 명의 엄청난 사망자가 발생할 수 있는 것. 최악의 유행병인 이 경우, 일부 국가의 경제는 세계적인 붕괴로 인해 8%까지 위축될 것으로 분석됐다. 이 논문을 발표한 두 연구원은 '억제된 발병이라도 단기적으로는 세계 경제에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다'고 경고한다. 황기철 콘페이퍼 에디터 큐레이터 Ki Chul Hwang, conpaper editor, curator |
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The global death toll from coronavirus could reach as high as 15million even in the best-case scenario, a new study says.
The research by the Australian National University also found that global GDP could shrink by as much as $2.3trillion even in what they call a 'low-end' pandemic.
In the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million including hundreds of thousands of deaths in Britain and the United States.
In that worst-case pandemic, some countries' economies would shrink by as much as eight per cent in a global meltdown.
The two researchers who published the paper warn that 'even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run'.
Medical staff in protective suits check information on sheets of paper at a hospital in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began
In the so-called 'low-severity' case, the death rate in China is estimated at around two per cent and adjusted for other countries.
The global death rate has been drifting higher than that in recent weeks, currently hovering around 3.4 per cent.
In that 'low-end' pandemic, the study estimates that more than 15million people would die within the first year of the outbreak, which started in China last December.
The estimates suggest that India and China would each lose millions of people, with more than 230,000 people killed in the United States.
Britain - which has only seen one death so far - could expect to see 64,000 fatalities, with 79,000 in Germany and 60,000 in France.
South Korea and Italy, which have suffered particularly widespread outbreaks in recent weeks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths, the study says.
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