전기차 도입은 끄덕끄덕...차량공유ㆍ자율주행은 "글쎄” Survey: AVs May Gain Widespread Adaption Within Decade
Survey: AVs May Gain Widespread Adaption Within Decade
January 22, 2019
Jan. Arthur D. Little recently released its 2018 Global Automotive Study Future of Automotive Mobility-Reloaded. The study, based on a survey of more than 8,000 drivers in 13 countries, examines how end-consumer preferences are driving megatrends such as electric mobility, car sharing and autonomous driving.
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Car-sharing sector struggling with cash pressures
전기차 도입은 끄덕끄덕...차량공유ㆍ자율주행은 "글쎄” 최근 세계적으로 자율주행 자동차, 차량공유에 대한 실험이 가속하고 있으나, 아직까지 이에 대한 우려가 더 많은 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 전기자동차 등 청정 에너지 도입에 대해서는 긍정적인 반응이 많았다. 컨설팅 업체 아서 디. 리틀(Arthur D. Little)은 최근 북미, 유럽 및 아시아 13개국 8000명이 참여하는 자동차 모빌리티에 대한 2018 설문조사를 공개했다. 조사 결과, ‘완전 자율주행차량(AV)’을 이용하겠습니까?‘라는 질문에 응답자의 57%만이 AV에 탑승할 것이라고 답했다. 이는 2015년 조사와 비교해 3년 새 7% 가량 감소한 것이다. 또, 자동차의 경우 공유경제에 대한 욕구도 그리 크지 않았다. 개인간(P2P) 자동차 공유 의향에 대한 질문에 23%만이 그럴 의향이 있다고 답해, 지난 2015년보다 3%포인트(p) 하락한 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 전기차 등 청정에너지를 사용하는 것에 대해서는 긍정적인 답이 많았다. 조사 대상자의 50%는 하이브리드 및 완전 배터리 전기차에 더 많은 비용을 지불하겠다고 답했다. 또, 41%는 전기자동차로 전환하는 요인이 기후변화 대응에 기여하기 위한 것이라고 응답했다. 응답자의 70%는 현재 가솔린 자동차를 소유하고 있었는데, 35%만이 다음에 구입할 차량으로 가솔린 차량을 꼽았다. 나머지는 대부분 하이브리드, 플러그인 하이브리드, 또는 완전 배터리 전기차를 구입할 계획이라고 답했다. 아서 디. 리틀의 파트너 슈미츠 박사는 “AV 도입이 확산되기 위해서는 훨씬 더 높은 수준의 안전 기준을 유지할 필요가 있다”며 “배터리 전기차의 성공은 충전 인프라 보급에 크게 좌우될 것”이라고 분석했다. [헤럴드경제=정윤희 기자]yuni@heraldcorp.com |
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Here are a few key findings from the study:
The desire to own vehicles has not changed very little
Despite that many people are registered for car sharing, consumers still consider it (only) an additional mobility option, with strong regional differences
Support for P2P car sharing has declined
Events of the last year have led to a much more critical customer perspective of autonomous driving
Securing private data from customers is becoming key for connected-car services and new mobility business models
People are starting to think greener – support for electric vehicles is picking up
A dramatic change can be projected for drivetrain selections – from gasoline and diesel towards hybrid and battery electric drivetrains – OEMs’ volume planning will be affected
Dr. Klaus Schmitz, partner with Arthur D. Little, took a deeper dive into the findings with FenderBender and shared a few of the key findings of the study and the impact it could have on collision repairers.
What was the finding you were most surprised by in the study?
The strong degree of readiness to shift from ICE to alternate drivetrains. Other findings that stood out were the high importance of owning a car, the falling acceptance of autonomous driving, and car sharing as a niche market.
What trends do you think will impact the industry as a whole in the next five years?
Long term autonomous driving will have a huge impact on collision repairs because it will decrease collisions significantly.
Hamburg
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Autonomous driving will also be a game changer for new mobility, which will lead to more industrialized maintenance and shift toward large fleet customers in substitution of private car owners.
Everyone seems to be talking about autonomous vehicles but how long do you think it will actually be before fully autonomous vehicles enter the consumer market?
This is a key question. I personally tend to estimate they will be available earlier than many think. So, 10 years rather than 20. I would even estimate—but this is just more speculation—that it could come even sooner.
How long before the industry should start getting ready for the autonomous future?
The industry should at least be coming up with a strategy right now.
What are the major long-term impacts and opportunities for collision repair shops?
With autonomous vehicles, there is the fear that collisions will lessen. There is still opportunity, though. Even though the collisions might be smaller, the damage could be greater because of sensor complexity, so collision repair shops should be familiarizing themselves with these. They should also begin looking at alternative work, such as refurbishing used cars.
The study mentioned that there will be a dramatic change in drivetrain selections and that OEMs will need to adjust volume planning. Can you go more in-depth on that?
Everyone is questioning when electric driving will take off. Our customer survey indicated that at least the customers are ready for that shift. When this happens, there will be a huge volume shift from ICE to BEV (and hybrid). Supply and production facilities—as well as infrastructure—need to be ready for that.
What advice would you give to the industry as a whole to prepare for the future?
Prepare for it now. Look to the future and figure out where you want to be and start developing a strategic plan to get there and how you’ll protect that position among uncertainty and competition. Consider your options.
https://www.fenderbender.com/articles/12198-study-avs-may-gain-widespread-adaption-within-decade
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