2019년 건설기계 시장 전망 2019 Annual Report & Forecast | Construction Equipment

 

2019 Annual Report & Forecast | Construction Equipment

By Rod Sutton, Editorial Director | December 14, 2018

Last year was “very good” according to respondents in transportation, nonresidential, and fleet management. Water infrastructure fell short of expectations. For 2019, water is the only vocation not expecting a “very good” business year.

2019년 건설기계 시장 전망 중국 인프라 투자 증가 미국 주택시장 지표 상승 기조   현대차증권은 중국 인프라 투자가 늘어나고 미국 주택시장 지표가 상승하는 점을 고려하면 건설기계 산업 부문은 내년 초까지 성장세를 이어갈 것으로 전망했다. 성정환 현대차증권 연구원은 28일 보고서에서 “중국 인프라투자 지표가 반등하고 있고, 한중 건설기계업체와 캐터필러가 내년 중국시장 가이던스가 예상보다 높은 가능성이 있다”며 이같이 전망했다. 내년 초까지 성장세 유지 성 연구원은 “내년 3월은 중국 굴착기 시장 최고 성수기로서 1분기는 건설기계업종 주가 수익률이 시장 기대를 넘는 경향이 있다”며 “지난달 중국 굴착기 내수 판매량은 전년대비 10% 늘어 탄탄한 모습을 보여서 이번 달에는 전년 대비 10% 내외로 증가할 것”이라고 했다. 이어 “지난달 기준 두산인프라코어와 현대건설기계의 판매량은 전년대비 감소했지만 신용관리를 보수적으로 하면서 발생한 일시적인 점유율 변동으로 보인다”며 “실제로 지난 10월 두 회사의 판매량은 전년 동기대비 소폭 증가하기도 했다”고 했다. 그는 “내년에는 중국 부동산 투자가 전년보다 둔화할 가능성이 있지만 반면에 인프라 투자는 정부 지원으로 10% 내외 증가할 것”이라며 “중국정부의 경기부양 의지에 따른 인프라투자 재개는 건설기계업종 투자심리 회복의 포인트”라고 했다. China Daily USA edited by kcontents 성 연구원은 “10월 미국 건설기계 출하액은 전년대비 증가하며 확장 세를 이어갔다”며 “주택시장은 신규주택 착공과 건축허가가 시장 예상치를 넘으며 호조를 이어갔다”고 했다. 이어 “미국 주택시장 지표 상승추세가 둔화하고 모기지 금리 상승으로 주택경기 피크아웃 우려가 나오고 있는 것은 사실”이라면서도 “여전히 주택시장 지표는 탄탄하고 내년에도 신규주택 착공 규모는 상승할 것으로 예상돼 연초 미국 건설기계 출하액은 10% 내외로 증가할 것”으로 전망했다.  [이데일리 전재욱 기자]  * 본 내용은 영어기사와 다소 상이할 수 있습니다.

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Last year brought bold moves that bolstered nearly every realm of the construction industry. Tax cuts and reduced regulations buoyed the stock market, and many construction firms geared up for a continuation of the growth seen during 2017.  Then came the tariffs tiff, igniting a trade war affecting broad swaths of the nation’s economy.

The optimism of early 2018 began to ebb. The mid-term elections were less disruptive than expected, but the year ended with a bit more uncertainty than it began.

The industry as a whole performed well in 2018, and expectations remain broadly positive for this year. The momentum of 2018 should keep pushing construction forward. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, said this in his analysis of the first nine months of 2018:

“Construction spending has increased among nearly every project type and geographic area this year. Despite month-to-month fluctuations, the outlook remains positive for modest to moderate increases in most spending categories at least through the first part of 2019. However, damaging trade policies, labor shortages and rising interest rates pose growing challenges to contractors and their clients.”

The many surveys cast at the end of 2018 that make up our Annual Report & Forecast support this conclusion.

Respondents are managers in the various construction markets. Construction Equipment has surveyed equipment users and construction managers about business and fleet performance for nearly 35 years in order to present an annual business review and outlook for the industry.

In the interview below, Case executive Michel Marchand discusses dealer relations as well as the 2019 outlook.

A win is a win

Business scored a second consecutive positive year in 2018, although disappointment in the water infrastructure and home building markets kept it from being a broad win across all construction vocations. The numbers broke more favorably when scored by region, with all reporting that 2018 was a “very good” or “excellent” year for business, according to results from this year’s Annual Report & Forecast. The performance in 2018 mirrored business expectations provided at the end of 2017.

Transportation, nonresidential, and fleet managers scored last year as “very good,” and each forecast the same for 2019. The momentum begun in 2017 appears to be sustainable in these vocations. Home building and water infrastructure also expect 2019 to perform better, after each fell short of expectations in 2018. Respondents in the home building arena expect to move into “very good” territory this year; those in the water industry expect to move from an “average” 2018 to a “good” 2019. Each of these markets is covered by Scranton Gillette/SGC Horizon publications, siblings to Construction Equipment.

According to Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, September 2018 construction spending was up 5.5 percent over January of that year. Both public and private spending were up in September, 7 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. Spending is expected to stay “robust” in 2019, he said.

“Despite month-to-month fluctuations, the outlook remains positive for modest to moderate increases in most spending categories at least through the first part of 2019,” Simonson said in November.

Expectations for 2019 remain high for New England, and Southern Plains joins in the “excellent” forecast. Other regions expect this year to be like 2018: “very good.”

In our surveys, all regions of the country reported that last year was “very good,” with New England performing better than its expectations with an “excellent” year. New England is joined by the Southern Plains region in forecasting an “excellent” 2019, with all other regions expecting another “very good” business year.

Business ratings for 2019 are fleshed out by contract revenue expectations for the year, a forecast that indicates growth beyond that seen in 2018. About 56 percent of respondents expect revenue to grow this year. Subtract the 8 percent expecting it to decline, and the net is 48.1 percent. Home building respondents are the most optimistic, with a net of 51.3 percent, and water is the least, recording a net of 39.8 percent.

There are several regions where optimism ranks even higher. In the Mid-South, the net of those expecting revenue increases minus those expecting decreases is 61.7 percent. Hovering near a net of 60 percent is the South Atlantic at 59.5 percent, Mountain at 58.5 percent, and Pacific at 57.7 percent.

Expectations are that bid prices will increase in 2019. Overall, 78.5 percent of respondents expect prices to go up, and only 2.1 percent expect them to go down. The net is 76.4 percent. Outliers are nonresidential, with a net of 83.3 percent, and transportation at 65.8 percent. By region, Mountain respondents reported a net of 83.8 percent, with 84.6 percent expecting bid prices to rise and 0.8 percent expecting decreases.

Revenue growth is expected to continue grow in 2019

Revenue growth is expected to continue grow in 2019, with net percentages up only slightly from last year.

Material prices continue to pressure bid prices, with tariffs perhaps intensifying that this year. For the construction industry, 87.1 percent expect material prices to increase this year, and after subtracting the 0.9 percent expecting decreases, the net is 86.2 percent. Home builders reported the lowest net, 80.7 percent. The Mountain region reported the highest, 90 percent, with none predicting decreases in materials prices.

Two of three respondents labeled their markets as “intensely competitive” or “very competitive,” the same as in last year’s study. Fleet managers reported the most competition, with 72 percent calling it “intensely” or “very” competitive, perhaps because rising equipment prices are boosting rates, which are then passed along in bids (see page 7 for more details on fleet price increases). The most competitive region is New England, with one-

quarter of respondents saying it is “intensely competitive.”

Overall firm health solidified in 2018, with 77.6 percent reporting that it was “very good” or “good,” the same percentage as in last year’s study. Water respondents were below the industry average: About two-thirds of water firms indicated health was “very good” or “good” in 2018.

Annual Report & Forecast Methodology

Construction Equipment partnered with sibling publications in specific construction vocations for a broad view of the construction industry. Our Scranton Gillette/SGC Horizon partners include Building Design+Construction, representing the nonresidential market; Professional Builder, representing the homebuilding industry; Roads & Bridges, on the transportation front; and Water & Wastes Digest, which covers the country’s water infrastructure issues.  Each magazine’s editor analyzes their individual market for a more detailed look at the upcoming year.

Case and Construction Equipment magazine partnered on this report

Construction Equipment has partnered with Case Construction Equipment since 2003 in presenting the Annual Report & Forecast. Case is a full-line manufacturer of earthmoving equipment, and its support of this project allows us to publish substantial amounts of data and analysis for the industry's use.

https://www.constructionequipment.com/2019-annual-report-forecast

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