서방이 거리 두는 미얀마서 中·日 영향력 확대 '각축' VIDEO: Analysis: Deft Diplomacy Required as China, Japan Court Myanmar

Analysis: Deft Diplomacy Required as China, Japan Court Myanmar

By NAN LWIN 19 December 2018

YANGON—While the West abandons Myanmar over the human rights crisis in Rakhine, China and Japan, understanding the value of the country’s strategic location in Southeast Asia, have done the opposite, accelerating their collaboration in a bid to get the upper hand and further their own grand plans.

State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Chinese President Xi Jinping wait for Myanmar delegates to arrive at a meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing in August 2016. / REUTERS

서방이 거리 두는 미얀마서 中·日 영향력 확대 '각축' 中 770㎞ 송유관 따라 '남북' 경제회랑 日 '동서축' 2개 경제회랑 속도   로힝야족 학살 문제로 서방 국가들이 등을 돌리기 시작한 미얀마에서 중국과 일본이 영향력 확대를 위한 각축전을 벌이고 있다. 믈라카 해협을 거치지 않고 곧바로 인도양에서 석유를 끌어올 수 있는 770㎞의 송유관을 뚫은 중국은 미얀마를 남북으로 관통하는 송유관을 따라 도로·철도 건설과 경제특구 개발에 박차를 가하고 있다. 동남아와 인도를 잇는 전략적 요충지인 미얀마에서 중국과 맞서는 일본도 미얀마의 첫 경제특구인 틸라와 개발과 동남아를 동서로 잇는 경제회랑 건설에 속도를 내고 있다. 20일 인터넷 매체 이라와디 등 현지 언론에 따르면 중국은 최근 '중국-미얀마 경제회랑'(CMEC) 프로젝트 성사를 위해 최고 경제기구인 국가발전개혁위원회 부위원장 등 고위급 관리를 미얀마에 파견했다. 중국 대표단은 실권자 아웅산 수치를 만나 CMEC 프로젝트 추진 문제를 논의하고, 수치를 필두로 18명의 장관과 5명의 주지사가 참여하는 '일대일로 추진위원회'도 접촉했다. 중국 대표단의 방문은 양국이 인도양과 중국 쿤밍을 연결하는 송유관의 출발점인 서부 라카인주 차우크퓨 항구 개발 프로젝트 재개에 합의한 직후 이뤄졌다. 당시 접촉을 통해 중국 측은 미얀마 정부에 CMEC 프로젝트의 구체적인 청사진을 제시한 것으로 보인다. 최근 미얀마 경제장관 회의에서 공개된 CMEC 프로젝트에는 최대도시인 양곤을 중심으로 북쪽으로는 제2의 도시 만달레이와 샨주, 남쪽으로는 라카인주를 도로와 철도로 잇고 곳곳에 산업단지를 건립하는 방안이 담겼다. 중국 측은 인프라와 물류 등 모두 총 40개의 개발 프로젝트를 제안했는데, 양국은 이 가운데 9개 프로젝트 추진에 합의했다. 미얀마를 남북으로 관통하는 중국의 개발 프로젝트 추진에 맞서 일본은 미얀마 동서축을 잇는 개발 프로젝트로 맞불을 놓고 있다. 일본은 지난 10월 태국, 미얀마, 베트남, 캄보디아, 라오스 등 메콩강 유역 5개국 정상들과 회의에서 경제협력 방안을 담은 '도쿄전략 2018'을 발표했다.         미얀마 관통 중국의 송유관 경로. 중국은 이 경로를 따라 경제회랑 건설을 추진한다.       © 제공: Yonhap News Agency (Korea) 도쿄전략 속에 녹아 있는 일본의 동남아 개발 계획은 크게 2개로 볼 수 있다. 하나는 베트남 중부 꽝찌성의 동하를 출발, 라오스와 태국을 거쳐 미얀마 최대도시 양곤의 틸라와 경제특구까지 연결하는 '동서 경제회랑'이다. 또 다른 하나는 베트남 남부 호찌민을 출발해 캄보디아와 태국, 미얀마 남동부 다웨이항으로 이어지는 '남부 경제회랑'이다. 특히 태국 방콕과 미얀마 양곤을 연결하는 경제회랑은 동남아시아를 장악했다고 해도 과언이 아닌, 일본 경제의 영향력을 미얀마까지 확대할 수 있는 핵심 요소다. 로힝야족 사태를 계기로 서방의 거센 비판과 압박에 직면한 실권자 수치도 '메콩-일본 협력'으로 추진되는 10개 미얀마-일본 양자 프로젝트, 100여개의 다국적 프로젝트가 미얀마에 큰 이득이 될 것이라며 반겼다. 일본은 이미 2016년 양곤을 비롯한 도심개발 등을 위해 8천억엔(약 8조380억원)의 공공 및 민간분야 지원을 약속했다. 양곤과 만달레이를 잇는 철도 현대화에 2천600억엔(약 2조6천억원)을 쏟아부을 예정이며, 일본 국제협력기구(JICA)를 통해 만달레이 항구개발에 60억엔(약 602억원)을 투입한다. 또 일본은 '자유롭고 개방된 인도 태평양 전략'에 따라 미얀마 중부 바고 인근의 한타와디 국제공항도 건설한다는 계획이다. 양국은 15억 달러(약 1조7천억원)의 비용이 소요되는 공항 건설을 시작하기로 합의했으며, 2020년 완공을 목표로 하고 있다.                       일본이 추진하는 동남아 경제회랑 © 제공: Yonhap News Agency (Korea)  전문가들은 이런 개발 프로젝트를 고려할 때 일본이 미얀마에서 중국의 경제 및 정치적 영향력 확대에 대응하려 하는 것으로 보인다고 분석한다. 특히 미국과 유럽연합(EU) 등이 로힝야족 학살을 계기로 미얀마에 등을 돌리는 상황에서 일본의 역할이 더욱 중요해졌다는 게 전문가들의 지적이다. 미얀마 전문가인 베틸 린트너는 "미얀마가 빠른 속도로 강대국들의 지정학적 게임의 장이 된 만큼 아주 세련된 외교 기술이 필요하다"며 "중국의 영향력 확대에 맞서는 일본의 파워 게임이 시작됐다"고 말했다. 그는 이어 "엄청난 부채가 뒤따르는 차관 형태의 중국 지원보다는 일본의 지원이 덜 위험하지만, 일본의 지원을 수용할 경우 중국의 거센 압박을 받을 수 있다"고 경고했다. (방콕=연합뉴스) 김상훈 특파원 meolakim@yna.co.kr

edited by kcontents

Beijing and Tokyo’s strategies to connect continents and oceans with sea lanes and inland highways that will improve Myanmar’s infrastructure have the potential to revive the country’s slowing economy and position the country as a regional trade and supply hub.

Key Chinese figures have been traveling back and forth between the two countries this year to pursue Beijing’s dream of implementing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), part of its region-wide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A week after signing the Kyaukphyu SEZ, the vice chairman of China’s top economic planning agency pushed Myanmar’s State Counselor—who also serves as chair of Myanmar’s BRI steering committee, to move forward with projects on the ground.

Myanmar’s BRI steering committee comprises 25 members including 18 Union ministers (from ministries ranging from Home Affairs to Hotels and Tourism); five chief ministers (from Kachin, Mandalay, Rakhine, Yangon and Shan); the foreign affairs permanent secretary; and the chairman of the Naypyitaw Council.

Last month, Beijing secured a long-awaited agreement to build the Kyaukphyu deep-water port in northern Rakhine State, which already serves as the terminus for twin cross-border oil and gas pipelines between the two countries. Kyaukphyu is a crucial phase in the CMEC.

According to U Set Aung, deputy minister for planning and finance, the Kyaukphyu project will contribute to the sustainable development of both countries and will also be crucial to enhancing Myanmar’s regional connectivity.

State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attend a bilateral meeting at the State Guest House in Tokyo on Oct. 9, 2018. / Myanmar Foreign Ministry / Facebook

Japan has accelerated its plans for Myanmar’s first special economic zone (SEZ) in Thilawa, which received more than $1.3 million in investment from 2014-18. It is also planning to upgrade roads and bridges through two states via the East-West Economic Corridor, one of the cross-border transport infrastructure projects that form part of Tokyo’s Greater Mekong Region economic integration scheme.

After nearly six decades of isolation under military dictatorship, the government led by State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been implementing economic reforms to complete Myanmar’s democratic transition. The government has drawn up the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP), the aim of which is to align the country’s numerous policies and institutions to achieve genuine, inclusive and transformational economic growth. The MSDP also aims to improve the country’s connectivity with neighboring countries and prioritizes economic corridors under both the GMS and BRI.

Under the BRI, Kyaukphyu is seen as a potential hub for China, giving it direct access to the Indian Ocean and allowing its oil imports to bypass the Strait of Malacca. It also serves Beijing’s goal of developing China’s land-locked Yunnan province.

At a recent Union-ministerial-level planning and finance meeting, it was disclosed that the CMEC will pass through Yangon, Mandalay, Shan, Irrawaddy and Rakhine (to the Kyaukphyu SEZ). China has proposed a total of 40 projects, but the two sides have only agreed to implement nine so far. However, the meeting didn’t issue details of the projects, other than construction plans for three economic cooperation zones along the Myanmar-China border in Shan and Kachin states.

In Yangon, the multi-billion-dollar New Yangon City project is a part of the CMEC plan. A framework agreement was recently signed for the project, which is envisioned as a complex of new towns, industrial parks and urban development projects.

Myanmar has also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China to begin studying a proposed railway line from Muse, in northern Shan State, to Mandalay. The Muse-Mandalay line is part of Beijing’s plan to build a parallel expressway and railway line from Ruili (across the border from Muse in China’s Yunnan province) to Kyaukphyu, with a separate road running through northern Myanmar, the northeast states of India, and Bangladesh under the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC).

Within the competition between China and Japan in the Mekong Region, “vertical” integration has been driven by China, while “horizontal” integration has been driven by Japan, as Myanmar exists in the heart of Asia with China to the north and east, India to the west and ASEAN to the east and south.

While Myanmar has come under severe pressure from the international community, Japan has shown its full support, helping to solve the Rakhine crisis and also showing strong disagreement with the EU’s consideration to withdraw trade preferences, which would hurt ordinary people in the country. In recent months, Japan announced its Tokyo Strategy 2018, aimed at promoting quality infrastructure development in countries along the Mekong River to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region via the BRI.

          A map showing the route of China’s planned Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. / ‘China’s 

          Asian Dream’ by Tom Miller

However, Japan’s quality infrastructure projects in the Mekong Region date back to the early 2000s, initiated by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). JICA has spent trillions of yen to improve economic integration in the Greater Mekong Region with a network of land and sea infrastructure routes between the countries. It emphasizes regional connectivity, which is focused on both industrial and physical infrastructure such as roads, telecommunications and power transmission lines.

“The rapid rise of China is one major factor in JICA’s decision to increase infrastructure development assistance in the Mekong Region,” said Tetsuji Iida, an adviser to the Planning and ASEAN Partnership Division of JICA’s Southeast Asia and Pacific Department.

Since the 2010s, Myanmar has opened up to the world and also joined in the full scope of GMS cooperation that has opened a new front in China and Japan’s rivalry in economic diplomacy.

Within Japan’s grand plan, Myanmar sits on two major economic corridors: the East-West Economic Corridor connecting Vietnam’s Dong Ha City with Yangon’s Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ) via Cambodia and Thailand, and the Southern Economic Corridor connecting central Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand to the Dawei SEZ in southeastern Myanmar.

State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has claimed that Myanmar will benefit from over 16 bilateral projects and 100 multilateral projects as part of the Mekong-Japan cooperation.

Japan’s grand plan aims to improve connectivity between Bangkok and Yangon along the East West Corridor. The corridor will help businesses based in Bangkok extend their supply chains to Yangon (at the Thilawa SEZ).

         A map detailing Japan’s plans to establish economic corridors in the Mekong Region / Government of Japan

JICA is looking to build an inland highway as a transport shortcut from Thilawa to Bangkok. Transportation routes from Singapore currently runt to a combined length of 4,000 km and take 21 days to negotiate. On the East-West Corridor, the Myanmar section does not function as an international highway due to bottlenecks such as one-way traffic, a lack of paved roads, traffic difficulties in the rainy season and weight limitations.

JICA plans to shorten transport time by constructing three bridges in Karen and Mon states—the Gyaing-Kawkareik Bridge, the Gyaing-Zathabyin Bridge and the Atran Bridge—as a part of the East-West Economic Corridor. It expects to take one-and-a-half days to transport goods over 870 km from Thilawa to Bangkok. JICA expects loans for the project to amount to about 33.8 billion yen and that the project will be complete by 2023.

Japan pledged about 800 billion yen (US$7.03 billion) in 2016 in public and private support over five years, including for urban development in Yangon, and roughly 260 billion yen for the Mandalay-Yangon rail modernization project. JICA agreed to provide 6 billion yen in grants to develop a major port in Mandalay that will connect the two cities by river. The plan includes the construction of a new pier and cranes to handle freight.

According to Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, Tokyo also plans to construct the Hanthawaddy International Airport near Bago city around 80 kilometers north of Yangon. In May, Transport and Communications Minister U Thant Sin Maung said that although Japan wants to start the project as soon as possible, Myanmar is considering the investment amount. However, according to a Japanese newspaper report in June, both sides agreed to go ahead with the project, which has a total estimated cost of $1.5 billion and is slated to be completed in 2020.

On the Southern Economic Corridor, the Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is crucial for Japan’s GMS connectivity, which will link central Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand to southeastern Myanmar. The Dawei SEZ is an $8-billion project in Tanintharyi Region that includes a deep seaport, set to be Southeast Asia’s largest industrial complex. In November, Myanmar and Thailand signed an agreement to upgrade a highway linking their border with the Dawei SEZ.

According to Dawei SEZ Management Committee Chairman U Tun Naing, JICA has been conducting a full phase master plan for the deep seaport project, including setting up an electrical grid, basic infrastructure and buildings. The primary stage of the project will jointly be implemented by Myanmar, Thailand and Japan, according to Ministry of Commerce.

Prof. Manabu Fujimura of the College of Economics at Tokyo’s Aoyama Gakuin University, an expert on economic corridors in GMS, told The Irrawaddy that Myanmar’s economic landscape is basically divided into two parts—Chinese economic influence in Myanmar will continue to extend from Muse (in Shan State on Myanmar’s border with China’s Yunnan province) to Mandalay and “upper Myanmar”, while Japanese and Thai economic influence would extend from Myawaddy (in Kayin State, on the border with Thailand’s Tak province) to Yangon and “lower Myanmar.”

         A map showing expected industrial connectivity in the Mekong Region. / JICA

Naypyitaw believes foreign direct investment (FDI) offers a shortcut by which Myanmar can catch up to its neighbors and the rest of the global economy, but experts suggest the country needs to make efforts to improve the business environment by engaging in continuous reform—while also making an effort to balance two giants while not pitting one power directly against the other.

Experts said the evidence showed that Japan wants to counter China’s economic and political forays into Myanmar, and that Japan’s role has become increasingly important as the West turns its back on Myanmar due to the crisis in Rakhine State and human-rights abuses in the country.

Longtime Myanmar observer Bertil Lintner told The Irrawaddy, “Myanmar would need some very skilled diplomats to deal with this issue, because the country is rapidly becoming a pawn in a geopolitical game that goes far beyond ports and economic zones. It’s about power games in the region where countries such as Japan and India are trying their utmost to contain China’s growing influence in Myanmar.”

Accepting aid from Japan is less risky than taking Chinese assistance, which usually comes in the form of loans and credits, which can turn into what’s known as a “debt trap”. If the loans can’t be repaid, China seizes the asset, as it has done in Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Japanese aid comes with fewer strings attached. But given the rivalry between Japan and China, Myanmar should expect a lot of Chinese pressure (political, economic, support for armed groups) if it accepts aid and assistance from Japan, Lintner added.

Topics: BRI, China, CMEC, Dawei, Diplomacy, economic corridors, Geopolitics, GMS, Investment, Japan, Kyaukphyu, Rakhine, Thilawa

https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/analysis-deft-diplomacy-required-china-japan-court-myanmar.html

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