원자력발전 수요증가를 예상한 UN 보고서 UN report shows increased need for nuclear
UN report shows increased need for nuclear
08 October 2018
A large increase in the use of nuclear power would help keep global warming to below 1.5 degrees, according to a United Nations report published today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report - Global Warming of 1.5 degrees - was commissioned by governments at the Paris climate talks in 2015 and will inform the COP24 summit in Katowice, Poland this December.
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원자력발전 수요증가를 예상한 UN 보고서 국제연합(United Nations) 보고서 원자력발전 대규모 활용 지구온난화를 섭씨 1.5도 이내 유지에 도움 원자력발전을 대규모로 활용할 경우 지구온난화를 섭씨 1.5도 이내로 유지하는데 도움이 될 것이라고 2018년 10월 8일 발간된 국제연합(United Nations) 보고서가 밝혔다. 'Global Warming of 1.5 degrees'라는 제목의 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 특별보고서는 2015년 파리기후변화회의에서 정부 간 합의에 따라 작성에 착수했으며 올 12월 폴란드 Katowice에서 개최되는 COP24 summit에서 공개될 예정이다. 이 보고서에서는 기후변화, 지속가능한 개발 및 빈곤근절을 위한 노력 등 전 세계적인 대응을 강화하기 위해 산업화 이전 수준보다 섭씨 1.5도 지구온난화 영향과 관련된 온실가스 배출경로를 살피고 있다. 지구온난화 수준을 섭씨 1.5도 안에서 묶기 위한 모든 시나리오에서 원자력발전의 기여도가 높아지는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 전력생산에서 원자력발전의 지분과 이산화탄소 포획 및 저장기술을 같이 쓰는 화석연료발전의 지분은 대부분의 섭씨 1.5도 시나리오에서 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 2050년까지 대부분의 섭씨 1.5도 시나리오에서 원자력발전 지분은 증가하지만 일부 시나리오에서 원자력발전의 용량과 지분을 감소하는 것으로 나타나기도 했다고 보고서 요약본에 기술되어 있다. 이는 향후 원자력발전 추진이 사회적 선호도에 따라 제한될 수 있기 때문이라면서 일부 시나리오의 경우 21세기 말경에는 원자력발전의 역할이 없을 것으로 가정하거나 2100년에도 원자력발전이 200 EJ/yr의 에너지를 공급할 것으로 보는 시나리오도 있기 때문이라고 보고서는 설명하고 있다. (참고. EJ = Exa Joule = E-18 Joule) Center for Biological Diversity edited by kcontents 원자력발전 증가는 현존하는 성숙한 원자력발전 기술이나 새로운 옵션의 활용을 의미하는데 여기에는 3세대 및 4세대 원자로, 증식로, 새로운 우라늄/토륨 핵연료 주기, 소형원자로 및 원자력 열병합발전 등이 포함된다. 원자력발전 증가여부는 사회적 수용성에 크게 영향을 받으며 이러한 인식의 차이가 2011년 일본 후쿠시마 원전사고 잉후 5개 국가는 원자력발전소 폐쇄를 가속화하고 있는 반면 다른 30개 국은 원자력발전을 계속 추진하고 있는지를 설명해 주고 있다고 보고서는 밝혔다. 원자력발전을 계속 추진하고 있는 30개 중 중국, 인도 및 영국 등을 포함한 13개국은 여전히 신규 원자력발전소를 건설하고 있다고 덧붙였다. ndsl.kr |
edited by kcontents
Sanmen in China, where the world's first AP1000 reactor achieved grid connection in August (Image: SNPTC)
The report considers the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Under all scenarios compatible with 1.5 degrees outlined in the report, the contribution of nuclear power increases.
The shares of nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon dioxide capture and storage in electricity generation are modelled to increase in most 1.5-degree pathways "with no or limited overshoot".
The nuclear power plant in Cattenom (France)
edited by kcontents
"Nuclear power increases its share in most 1.5-degree pathways by 2050, but in some pathways both the absolute capacity and share of power from nuclear generators declines," the Summary for Policymakers of the report says. "There are large differences in nuclear power between models and across pathways. One of the reasons for this variation is that the future deployment of nuclear can be constrained by societal preferences assumed in narratives underlying the pathways. Some 1.5-degree pathways no longer see a role for nuclear fission by the end of the century, while others project over 200 EJ yr of nuclear power in 2100."
An increase in the use of nuclear power can be realised through existing mature nuclear technologies or new options, it says, referring to Generation III/IV reactors, breeder reactors, new uranium and thorium fuel cycles, small reactors or nuclear cogeneration.
"Even though historically scalability and speed of scaling of nuclear plants have been high in many nations, such rates are currently not achieved anymore. In the 1960s and 1970s, France implemented a programme to rapidly get 80% of its power from nuclear in about 25 years, but the current time-lag between the decision date and the commissioning of plants is observed to be 10-19 years," it says.
The current deployment pace of nuclear energy is "constrained by social acceptability in many countries", it notes, owing to concerns over risks of accidents and radioactive waste management.
"Though comparative risk assessment shows health risks are low per unit of electricity production, and land requirement is lower than that of other power sources, the political processes triggered by societal concerns depend on the country-specific means of managing the political debates around technological choices and their environmental impacts," the report says.
"Such differences in perception explain why the 2011 Fukushima incident resulted in a confirmation or acceleration of phasing out nuclear energy in five countries while 30 other countries have continued using nuclear energy, amongst which 13 are building new nuclear capacity including China, India and the UK," it adds.
The costs of nuclear power have increased over time in some developed nations, it says, "principally due to market conditions where increased investment risks of high-capital expenditure technologies have become significant".
"Countries with liberalised markets that continue to develop nuclear employ de-risking instruments through long-term contracts with guaranteed sale prices. For instance, the UK works with public guarantees covering part of the upfront investment costs of newly planned nuclear capacity. This dynamic differs in countries such as China and South Korea, where monopolistic conditions in the electric system allow for reducing investment risks, deploying series effects and enhancing the engineering capacities of users due to stable relations between the security authorities and builders," it says.
Graph: Proportional effect of measures to mitigate the main cause of global
warming, the emission of CO2 by the year 2030. 100% = effect of all proposed
measures together. Data source: International Energy Agency (IEA). http://iea.org
edited by kcontents
Unprecedented changes
In a statement to accompany the report, the IPCC said limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to 2 degrees "would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". It adds: "With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to 2 degrees could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society."
"One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1 degree C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes," said Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I.
The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to 2 degrees, or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5 degrees compared with 2 degrees. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5 degrees, compared with at least once per decade with 2 degrees. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90% with global warming of 1.5 degrees, whereas more than 99% would be lost with 2 degrees.
The report was prepared under the scientific leadership of all three IPCC working groups. Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change; Working Group II addresses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group III deals with the mitigation of climate change.
Global Warming of 1.5 degrees is the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Cycle. Next year the IPCC will release the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate Change and Land, which looks at how climate change affects land use.
Industry response
Responding to the report, Agneta Rising, director general of World Nuclear Association said: "Today's IPCC report makes clear the potential benefits of limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees, the urgency for action to achieve this and the necessity of nuclear energy as an important part of an effective global response."
The London-headquartered Association noted the report concludes that achieving the 1.5 degrees goal will require global greenhouse gas emissions to start reducing almost immediately. This will require a faster switch to electricity for energy end use and for that greater electricity demand to be met by low-carbon generation, including nuclear, it said. Nuclear generation increases, on average by around 2.5 times by 2050 in the 89 mitigation scenarios considered by the IPCC, it added.
Achieving a rapid decarbonisation of the electricity sector will require, at first, deploying proven technology, the Association said. The report recognises that the projected increase in nuclear generation can be realised through existing mature nuclear technology or through new options such as generation III/IV reactors and SMRs. Generation III reactors have already come into operation in several countries, it added.
The Association noted the report says that, historically, "scalability and speed of scaling of nuclear plants have been high in many nations", noting that France implemented a programme to rapidly get 80% of its (electrical) power from nuclear. The report also says that "comparative risk assessment shows health risks are low per unit of electricity production" and land requirement is "lower than that of other power sources."
The report also states that nuclear economics have been improved in countries where the electricity system allows for reduced investment risks, the realisation of benefits from series build or through stable relations between regulators and industry. However, in some other countries market conditions have increased investment risks of high-capital expenditure technologies, such as nuclear. The report also notes that the current deployment pace of nuclear energy is constrained by "social acceptability" in some countries.
Rising said: "The IPCC report highlights the proven qualities of nuclear energy as a highly effective method of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as providing secure, reliable and scalable electricity supplies. To maximise nuclear energy's contribution electricity markets need to acknowledge these benefits. We also need more effective harmonised regulatory processes to facilitate significant growth in nuclear capacity and an effective safety paradigm where the health, environmental and safety benefits of nuclear are better understood and valued by society."
Dr Jenifer Baxter, head of engineering at the UK's Institution of Mechanical Engineers, said the IPCC's target to generate 70-80% electricity from renewables is ambitious, adding there is a need to "look at the broader picture" and focus on reducing the carbon intensity of the whole electricity system.
She said: "Currently renewables are backed up by gas when they are not generating and, in the UK, gas is backed up by coal. Carbon capture and storage may help to some extent, but this infrastructure runs the risk of locking us into a fossil fuel-based system. We are not yet in the position to create enough long-term storage from environmentally friendly sources to fill the supply gap when renewables are not generating.
"We have very limited options for more hydro power in the UK, batteries do not yet provide the type of storage needed and other options like liquid air and hydrogen storage are still early in their development stages.
"Another option to reduce the carbon intensity of the electricity system is to take a more certain approach to nuclear power by planning a long-term rolling programme of development that grows the supply chain and required skills, as well as reducing the overall costs of building new power stations. Going beyond the electricity system, we should explore the relationship between nuclear and producing hydrogen through
electrolysis to provide decarbonised fuel for heat, transport and industry."
Researched and written by World Nuclear News
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UN-report-shows-increased-need-for-nuclear
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