국민투표로 탈원전 폐기한 대만..."뒤쫓던 한국만 나홀로 탈원전 역주행?" Pro-Nuclear Activists Win Landslide Electoral Victory In Taiwan
Pro-Nuclear Activists Win Landslide Electoral Victory In Taiwan
Michael Shellenberger
In a surprise victory, Taiwanese voters on Saturday decisively rejected the government’s phase-out of nuclear power, 59% to 41%.
Pro-nuclear activists in Taiwan shouted and shed tears of joy at around 10:15 pm Taiwan time (9:15 am Eastern time) after it became clear that they had won the required five million votes to pass a referendum ending the phase-out.
Pro-nuclear activists getting out the vote in the run-up to the electionMICHAEL SHELLENBERGER
탈원전 반대 투표 앞두고 홍보에 나선 친핵 운동원들
국민투표로 탈원전 폐기한 대만..."뒤쫓던 한국만 나홀로 탈원전 역주행?" 24일 탈원전 폐기안 국민투표 통과 2년만 다시 친(親)원전국가로 한국의 탈(脫)원전 롤모델 대만의 지난 24일 탈원전 폐기안 국민투표가 통과됐다. 대만은 이르면 연내 탈원전 법안을 폐기하고 2년만에 다시 친(親)원전국가로 돌아가게 된다. 대만 중앙선거위원회는 24일 탈원전 법안 폐기를 포함해 올림픽에 중국을 뜻하는 ‘차이니스 타이베이’가 아닌 대만이라는 이름으로 나가자는 안 등 10개 안에 대해 국민투표를 실시했다. 탈원전 폐기를 묻는 국민투표는 찬성 589만5560표를 얻어 통과됐다. 대만 국민투표는 전체 유권자의 25% 이상이 동의해야 가결된다. 대만은 2016년 차이잉원(蔡英文) 총통 당선과 함께 아시아에서 최초로 탈원전을 추진했다. 차이 총통은 지난해 1월 전기사업법 95조1항에 2025년까지 가동 중인 모든 원전을 완전 중단시키는 조항을 신설하고 전체 6기의 원전 중 총 4기의 가동을 중단했다. 하지만 대만 국민들 사이에서 탈원전으로 인한 전력 공급 불안감이 커지면서 다시 원전을 가동해야한다는 여론이 커졌다. 전력 예비율이 올해 한 때 적정 수준(15%)에 크게 못 미치는 6% 수준에 머물면서다. 또 석탄발전을 줄여야한다는 공감대가 형성된 것도 탈원전 폐기의 배경으로 꼽힌다. 대만 총 전력 생산에서 원전 비중은 2012년 16.1%에서 지난해 8.3%로 절반 가까이줄었다. 하지만 석탄 발전을 통한 전력 생산 비중은 같은 기간 48.5%에서 46.6%로 큰 변화가 없었다.
Nuclear Power Plants in Taiwan graphic/World Nuclear Association 이번 국민투표 가결은 대만에 이어 탈원전 정책을 추진하던 한국에 시사하는 바가 크다는 게 전문가들의 평가다. 2030년까지 신재생에너지 비중을 20%로 늘린다는 한국 정부의 정책은 차이 총통 공약(2025년까지 신재생 비중 20%)에서 따온 것이라는 시각이 많다. 신재생으로 모자란 부분은 LNG발전으로 메운다는 점도 똑같다. 이번 국민투표는 지방선거와 함께 실시됐다. 이번 선거는 차이 총통이 이끄는 민주진보당(민주당) 집권 3년차 국정 전반에 대한 중간평가 성격이 짙다. 지방선거에서 민진당은 2곳의 직할시 시장 자리를 국민당에 뺏기게 됐다. 차이 총통은 전날 밤 기자회견을 통해 선거 패배 책임을 지고 민진당 주석 자리에서 물러나겠다고 밝혔다. 전문가들은 이번 국민투표의 충격으로 차이 총통이 국정 장악력을 잃으면서 2020년 재선 가능성도 크게 낮아질 것이라고 분석했다. 김형규 기자 khk@hankyung.com 한국경제 |
edited by kcontents
“We will immediately ask the government to start-up non-operating reactors and extend the lives of the others,” said Shih-Hsiu Huang, a “Go Green With Nuclear” referendum organizer.
As of this writing, 5,894,570 votes were cast in favor of repealing the nuclear phase-out, and 4,013,621 votes against the initiative.
“If the government doesn’t do the right thing, we will put another pro-nuclear referendum on the ballot in 2020,” said Huang, a physicist and co-founder of Nuclear Mythbusters.
After shutting down a nuclear reactor, the nation last year suffered a deadly black-out that threatened the nation's vital semiconductor industry.
A Trend Survey Research poll commissioned by pro-nuclear activists before the vote found that one of the strongest arguments for nuclear was, “Solar and wind are not stable, and are expensive,” attracting 71% agreement.
Pro-nuclear advocacy — which constantly reminded voters of the black-out — may have contributed to voter rejections of candidates aligned with Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, announced in a speech on Saturday that she would step down as leader of the Party after its "disappointing performance."
Pollsters said the vote would make it easier for pro-nuclear politicians in Taiwan to be more open in their advocacy.
A former premier, Simon Chang, told me that nuclear waste remains a top concern for the Taiwanese people. Chang, who is moderately pro-nuclear, is widely-viewed as a strong presidential candidate for the elections in January, 2020.
Grassroots organizing appears to have played a significantly role in the victory. The Trend poll found 52% of voters supported the referendum — eight percent less than the final vote.
“I’m not worried about having a majority of support,” Huang told me last Monday. “I’m worried about getting enough people to the polls.”
In recognition of the challenge, pro-nuclear volunteers fanned out across the country wearing polar bear masks to whip up environmentalist support for the vote at train stations and parks. I travelled with them from November 16 to 19, and interviewed voters along the way.
Grassroots activism by pro-nuclear volunteers was a decisive factor in the victory.MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER
Where anti-nuclear activists handed out slick campaign materials accompanied by small gifts of tissue paper, and advertised heavily on the sides of buses, pro-nuclear activists lacked resources to buy any advertising.
Instead, they spread the facts about nuclear energy through volunteer-staffed events, inexpensive flyers, and Facebook. Huang’s group, Nuclear Mythbusters, started as a Facebook page.
Because Taipower, Taiwan's electricity utility that operates the nuclear plant, is publicly-owned, it was prohibited from supporting pro-nuclear activists.
Opponents of nuclear power told me they were frightened by the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and that Taiwan could replace the power from nuclear through the use of solar, geothermal, and other forms of renewable energy.
“I support the nuclear phase-out,” Sam Huang, 41, told me in downtown Taipei. “We are in an earthquake zone.” He acknowledged the nuclear phase-out would increase electricity prices but said it was worth it.
However, none of the anti-nuclear voters I interviewed had much to say about why they opposed the technology beyond oft-heard talking points. Several admitted embarrassment at not having answers to the questions I posed.
By contrast, pro-nuclear voters had far more to say. “I support nuclear because otherwise we have to import our energy,” said Gong-Jen Shu, 68. “Solar and wind are too unstable because they depend on the weather.”
“Our strongest argument is the high economic cost of phasing out nuclear,” said Yen-Peng Liao, another “Go Green” organizer, “followed by fear of future blackouts and air pollution.”
The Taiwanese tend to be mistrustful of polling as pollsters in the past have publicized unscientific surveys to manipulate voter opinion. Taiwan election law prohibited Huang from releasing the poll results before the election.
But the “Go Green with Nuclear” organizers said Trend was different. “We hired Trend because they are a trustworthy company,” Huang explained. The brothers showed me their call center, which was buzzing with activity.
Huang captured international media attention after going on a hunger strike last September when the government-controlled electoral commission attempted to prevent a vote on the referendum.
Scientists and scholars protested the electoral commission's decision, and climate scientist James Hansen generated national media publicity a few days later when he visited Huang in person, and voiced support for the referendum.
Huang's friend Liao joined the hunger strike, after Huang was rushed to the hospital. Two months later — last Monday — I attended a rock concert to promote the "Go Green" referendum where Liao sang as front-man.
Pro-nuclear rock concern in TaipeiMICHAEL SHELLENBERGER
The victory is especially remarkable because Taiwan election law required that voters make a special request to vote on the ballot initiative, after voting for candidates.
At a park in central Taiwan a I had a friendly chat with two anti-nuclear activists who were outnumbered 10-to-1 by the pro-nuclear activists.
I was surprised when one of them, a young woman named Wren, admitted to me that nobody died from radiation exposure at Fukushima. Usually anti-nuclear groups claim thousands died.
The anti-nuclear flyer Wren gave me promoted natural gas as the alternative to nuclear and claimed that if nuclear plants kept operating, more coal would be burned.
Before I left, I told Wren that I gave a TEDx talk called "Why I changed my mind about nuclear power." Her face lit up: "Is there a way for me to see it?"
I gave her my business card and told her it was on-line. After our friendly interaction, we posed for a photograph together, and then the polar bears and I rushed off to catch the train to our next stop.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/11/24/pro-nuclear-activists-win-landslide-electoral-victory-in-taiwan/#6490243d29a0
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