Global construction market to grow $8 trillion by 2030: driven by China, US and India
Global construction market to grow
$8 trillion by 2030: driven by China, US and India
US construction market to grow faster than China over next 15 years
Despite size, China powerhouse to drop to historic low of construction growth in 2016
India to provide a new engine of global growth for construction in emerging markets, growing at
almost twice as fast as China
Europe will not recoup its ‘lost decade’ but the UK will be continental Europe’s stand-out growth
market, overtaking Germany to become the world’s sixth largest construction market by 2030
A new report released today – Global Construction 2030 – forecasts the volume of construction
output will grow by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide by 2030, with three countries – China, US and
India – leading the way and accounting for 57% of all global growth.
The benchmark global study - the fourth in a series from Global Construction Perspectives and
Oxford Economics - shows average global construction growth of 3.9% pa to 2030, outpacing
that of global GDP by over one percentage point, driven by developed countries recovering from
economic instability and emerging countries continuing to industrialize.
“China’s share of the world construction market will increase only marginally as growth slows in
the world’s largest construction market to 2030. In comparison, US construction will grow faster
than China over the next 15 years – growing by an average of five percent per annum. Meanwhile,
we’re due to see a surge in construction rates in India as it overtakes Japan to become world’s
third largest construction market by 2021,” says Graham Robinson, Executive Director, Global
Construction Perspectives.
China construction growth is to slow considerably with a slump in housing and the first ever
decline in housing output for China will be registered this year. But, its transition to a consumer
and services driven economy provides opportunity for growth in new types of construction in
healthcare, education and social infrastructure, as well as retail and other consumer end-markets.
The abolition of China’s one-child policy adds impetus to our long-term view.
The construction market in India will grow almost twice as fast as China to 2030, providing a
new engine of global growth in emerging markets. India’s urban population is expected to grow
by a staggering 165 million by 2030, swelling Delhi by 10.4 million people to become the world’s
second largest city.
“Although globally we see construction growing more rapidly than the overall economy, with
developed markets forecast to rebound from their depressed levels, many will not be back to their
previous peak levels even by 2030. The current weakness in most emerging countries is likely
to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon rturning,” says Mike Betts, Global Construction
Perspectives.
In the US construction growth will tilt towards the southern states, reflecting the region’s greater
catch-up potential and higher population growth.
“Fed lift-off, expected as early as December, could mean a risk for construction growth in key
emerging markets - Brazil, Russia, Turkey and India – that could all suffer from significant shortterm
reductions in growth for construction, with some of these countries potentially halving
growth,” says Jeremy Leonard, Director of Industry Services, Oxford Economics.
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