중국은 지금 183조 원 규모 '일대일로(뉴 실크로드) 프로젝트' 추진 중 China's Grand Strategy: The New Silk Road

철도 투자 규모 가장 커

고속도로 공항건설 항구 수리시설 순 투자

중국의 일대일로(뉴 실크로드) 프로젝트 China's New ways Project. 

source http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/newsilkway/index.htm

 

[관련자료]

China's way: the new Silk Road - 1

edited by kcontents 

케이콘텐츠 

중국 정부가 야심차게 추진 중인 "일대일로(육·해상 실크로드)"와 관련, 현재 중국 내에서 계획하거나 이미 추진 중인 프로젝트 규모가 1조400억위안(약 183조원)에 이르는 것으로 나타났다.  특히 올해 일대일로에 3000억~4000억위안이 투자돼 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률을 0.2~0.3%포인트 끌어 올리는 효과가 있을 것으로 전망된다. 6일 중국 민생증권과 현지 언론에 따르면 지금까지 공개된 각 지방정부의 일대일로 관련 계획 및 시공 중인 프로젝트 규모가 1조400억위안에 달하는 것으로 집계됐다. 해당 지역은 충칭, 시안, 쓰촨, 닝샤, 장쑤, 윈난, 산시, 광시, 네이멍구, 깐수, 칭하이, 광둥, 푸젠성 등 대부분이 일대일로 계획에 참여하는 18개 지방정부에 포함된 곳이다. 이 중 철도 투자규모가 약 5000억위안으로 가장 많고 고속도로 투자 1235억위안, 공항건설 투자 1167억위안, 항구 수리시설 투자 1700억위안 등이다. 일대일로 계획에 포함된 지역 중 대부분이 중국 서부쪽에 위치해 있어 인프라 구축 및 산업발전의 기회가 될 것으로 전망된다. 대표적으로 시안의 경우 지난달 초에 일대일로 전략 및 계획을 발표했는데 총 투자 규모가 1115억위안에 달하는 60개 육상 실크로드 중점사업을 가동했다. 민생증권연구원의 관칭여우 부원장은 일대일로의 전제 조건을 토대로 "일반적인 인프라 시설의 건설 주기는 2~4년 정도이고 올해 일대일로 투자 규모는 3000억~4000억위안 정도에 이를 것"이라며 "인프라 승수와 GDP 디플레이터 영향 등을 감안하면 GDP 성장률을 0.2~0.3%포인트 촉진시키는 효과가 기대된다"고 말했다. 그는 일대일로 프로젝트가 본격 시행되면 저조한 투자가 상승 반전하고 중국 경제에 "4차 투자열풍"이 불 것이라고 전망했다. 일대일로는 60여개국을 육상 및 해상 실크로드로 연결하게 되는데 이 지역에 거주하는 인구가 44억명, 경제규모는 20조달러로 전 세계의 63%, 29%에 이른다. 각 지방정부들이 일대일로를 위해 뛰고 있지만 결국 최종 수혜자는 기업이 될 것으로 전망된다. 국유자산관리위원회 황단화 부주임은 최근 중앙기업계획 업무보고에 참석해 "올해 중앙기업들이 일대일로에 적극 참여하고 있다"면서 "정부 차원에서 일대일로 전략을 추진하면서 중국 기업들이 해외로 뻗어나갈 수 있는 최적의 시기를 맞고 있다"고 밝혔다. 한편 일대일로의 총책임자로 장가오리 상무 부총리가 임명됐다고 싱가포르 연합조보가 전했다. 일대일로 건설에 관한 "업무(공작)영도소조"의 조장에 정치국 상무위원인 장 부총리가, 4명의 부조장에는 왕후닝 중앙정책연구실 주임, 왕양 부총리, 양징.양제츠 국무위원이 각각 임명됐다. (베이징=파이낸셜뉴스) 김홍재특파원 hjkim@fnnews.com

China's Grand Strategy: The New Silk Road

David Gosset  The contrast is striking: on one side, the 2016 U.S. presidential elections are already absorbing Washington's energy, the European Union is in an urgent need of decisive leadership and a series of severe crises are eroding Russia's power. On the other side, China, rapidly regaining a position of centrality, is developing a new grand strategy with a global vision. Far from being an empty rhetorical effect, Xi Jinping's New Silk Road will not only be one of the most discussed topics of 2015, but it will profoundly mark China's coming decade and reshape Eurasia. Backed by massive financial investments coming from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund, "the Silk Road Economic Belt", first announced on the occasion of a visit in Kazakhstan six months after Xi Jinping became China's President, and "the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road" are symbols of 21st century China and constitute for the Eurasian actors a historical opportunity. "Global China" is certainly one of the features defining the Chinese renaissance, the country's opening up creates conditions in which the world impacts the Chinese society but an open China projects also herself globally, Xi's New Silk Road vision, reminiscent of the Tang dynasty's dynamics, illustrates this movement. Some observers can point out that Beijing's renewed focus on the Eurasian continent can be seen, in geopolitical terms, as an answer to the U.S. pivot to Asia initiated by the Obama administration, however, the New Silk Road should not be interpreted as a tactical scheme to counter other forces, it simply complements "a new type of major-power relationship" which characterizes the China/U.S. bilateral relations. The People's Republic of China, soon the world's largest economy, is aware that with power comes responsibility -- and vice versa. In a sense, the New Silk Road can be understood as a Marshall Plan with Chinese characteristics, it reassures the Middle Country's neighbors, contributes to their growth and places them in a system designed by Beijing. Xi's grand diplomacy has the advantage to envelop China's West, Xinjiang, one sixth of China's territory, de facto at the center of the Eurasian continent, is a key element of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Infrastructure projects, trade, innovative public/private partnerships will transform China's most Western region into an international platform and take it simultaneously closer to Shanghai, Turkey and Europe. It would be for China's first trading partner, the European Union, strategic blindness to miss the opportunities offered by Xi's proposal, a vision whose scope goes far beyond the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. 2015, year of the 40th anniversary of the China-EU relations, can mark a new departure for the relations between the two edges of Eurasia. While the China-EU 2020 Strategic Agenda and the negotiations on an investment agreement are positive developments, the EU's new trio, Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council and Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, should respond adequately to the New Silk Road initiative with a sense of historical responsibilities and the common destiny of Eurasians as a strategic horizon. If they fail to do so, they would take the risk to isolate the EU from a major trend which will, in any case, with the political determination and the economic might of Beijing change Eurasia. A Sino-European Silk Road Fund could be a complementary mechanism to finance large projects -- from infrastructure to education -- serving the shared vision of a peaceful and prosperous Eurasia. An ambitious trade agreement between the EU and China would complement the efforts to facilitate commercial exchanges across the Atlantic and across the Pacific. Italy, where the Silk Road has a unique significance, Germany, the country of Ferdinand Richthofen the geographer who coined the term "Seidenstrasse" and France, especially apt to conceive a bold and independent policy toward China, can push the European Union to seize the New Silk Road moment. Rome, Berlin and Paris will certainly get the full support of Eastern Europe whose history and culture are, through the Eurasian continuities, connected with Central Asia. Eurasia is under the immediate threat of a territorialized terrorism that will not be defeated with drones, killing machines which, on the contrary, generate infinite hatred and fuel radicalism. The New Silk Road, addressing the long term needs of economic and social progress, creates the conditions to eliminate the roots of extremism. Moreover, enhanced EU/China synergies in the framework of the New Silk Road are an invitation addressed to Russia, indispensable nexus in a continental cooperation network, to act as a co-architect of a 21st century Eurasia. Japan, a nation confronting multiple crises but which is still the world's third largest economy, is not by essence excluded from the New Silk Road, the ancient Silk Road which still fascinates the Japanese scholars linked Europe and Nara, in the year which coincides with the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Tokyo can choose to reconnect with the depth of its Eurasianess and become a constructive force in the making of a cooperative Eurasia.  The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road which will boost the ties between the Middle Country and Southeast Asia, gives a new importance to the province of Fujian. Xi Jinping, who combined a profound knowledge of Fujian and a deep understanding of the Taiwan issue, is offering Taipei an opportunity to benefit from his grand strategy and a space, besides APEC, for more international visibility. Fully embraced by the European Union and other Eurasian actors, the New Silk Road will take 65 percent of the world population toward an unprecedented level of cohesiveness and prosperity. Following the "China Dream" mainly articulated for the Chinese people, Xi Jinping proposes a humanistic vision of progress which goes beyond national interests, based on China's own experience of material development and inspired by the Chinese sense of universalism, Da Tong, or Grand Harmony, the New Silk Road is "Eurasia's Dream", a dream we can pursue together. David Gosset is director of the Academia Sinica Europaea at China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), Shanghai, Beijing & Accra, and founder of the Euro-China Forum. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-gosset/chinas-grand-strategy-the_b_6433434.html

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