IMF, 한국 "환율 상승 너무 심하다" 경고..."최고 13% 내려야 정상 IMF Says Global Growth Still Being Held Back by Trade Imbalances(VIDEO)

한국 경상수지 흑자 과도 지적

국제통화기금이 한국에 대해 원화 환율을 내리라고 촉구하고 나섰다.수출에 비상이 걸릴 수 있는 

중대 사안이다.

글로벌이코노믹

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케이콘텐츠 편집

국제통화기금(IMF)이 한국의 경상수지 흑자가 과도하다고 지적하고 나섰다.  IMF는 29일 주요 28개국의 대외수지와 환율을 분석한 연례보고서를 발표하면서 한국을 문제삼았다.    IMF는 “국가 간 대외수지 불균형은 글로벌 성장을 제약하고 글로벌 금융을 불안정하게 만든다”고 지적하면서 "경상수지 흑자규모가 큰 나라들이 불균형 개선에 나서야 한다" 고 강조했다.   경상흑자를 줄이기 위해서는 환율인상을 자제하고 국내소비를 진작시켜야 한다고 IMF는 지적했다.   IMF는 한국 원화의 가치가 5∼13% 저평가돼 있다고 지적했다.   원화의 환율을 최고 13%내려야 정상이라는 것이다. IMF는 한국 이외에 중국과 독일도 경상수지 흑자가 과도한 나라로 꼽고 경상수지 불균형 개선에 나서라고 요구했다.   IMF의 립튼 부총재는 이와 관련 “경상수지 개선을 위해서는 실효 환율을 바로잡는 것이 중요하다”라고 역설했다.  특히 중국에 대해서는 서둘러 시장에 기반을 둔 환율제도를 도입해야 할 것이라고 말했다. [글로벌이코노믹] 김재희 기자 tiger8280@

IMF Says Global Growth Still Being Held Back by Trade Imbalances

by Andrew Mayeda

Countries with large current-account surpluses such as China and Germany need to boost domestic demand to help correct imbalances that are limiting global growth, the IMF said.

There’s been little progress over the past several years in reducing such imbalances, which also contribute to financial instability, International Monetary Fund staff said Tuesday in an annual report analyzing external balances and exchange rates.

China’s current-account surplus and the U.S.’s deficit continue to be the biggest forces driving global imbalances, even though both measures have narrowed since before the financial crisis, the Washington-based lender said.

It’s “critical” for China to adopt a flexible, market-based exchange rate, and the nation should take steps to raise consumption and open up the financial system, the IMF said. While the yuan traded at levels 3 percent to 12 percent below the level “consistent with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies” last year, recent appreciation in the currency means it’s no longer undervalued, according to the fund.

The conclusion on the yuan repeats an assessment offered in May and contradicts the U.S. position that the currency remains undervalued. The IMF is separately reviewing this year whether the yuan is widely-enough used to warrant reserve-currency status.

The U.S. dollar is currently trading “moderately above” a level consistent with fundamentals, the IMF said.

‘Mediocre’ Outcome

“At best, inaction on excess imbalances would mean a lost opportunity, settling for a mediocre global outcome in terms of growth and stability,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton said in a statement. “Insufficient action to reduce excess deficits would mean additional risks to financial stability.”

Along with China and Germany, Lipton flagged South Korea as a country that should reduce its current-account surplus. He also noted the deficits in the U.K., Brazil and France.

Correcting the global imbalances requires an adjustment by both surplus and deficit nations, which should take steps to boost growth in domestic demand, he said.

“Adjustment of real exchange rates, though it would not suffice on its own, is also essential, and policies should facilitate rather than obstruct that adjustment,” Lipton said.

Recent currency volatility has been a “natural” response to shifts in commodity prices, especially oil’s plunge, as well as divergences among economies in terms of growth, inflation and monetary policy, he said.

The IMF report estimates the U.S. dollar may have been overvalued by as much as 10 percent last year. The fund recommends the federal government aim for a primary budget surplus of about 1 percent of gross domestic product over the medium term. The IMF also suggests structural reforms to improve productivity and labor-force growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/imf-says-global-growth-still-being-held-back-by-trade-imbalances

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