지구 온도, 역대 최고치 또 갱신 Global warming hiatus never happened

미국 국립해양대기청(NOAA),

2015년 5월 지구 전체 평균 온도,

20세기 평균 대비 0.87도나 높아

역대 최고치 또 다시 경신

A shift during the last couple of decades to greater use of buoys for measuring sea surface 

temperatures might have caused reports of a so-called global warming hiatus. That’s because 

buoys tend to give cooler temperature readings than measurements taken from ships. When a 

new study corrected for this discrepancy, the “hiatus” goes away. Image via NOAA/CREWS.

올해 5월의 세계 평균 온도가 지난해에 이어 또 다시 사상 최고치를 경신했다.

사진은 온도를 측정하는 부표 시설. 출처 earthsky.org

edited by kcontents 

케이콘텐츠 편집

지구가 뜨거워지고 있다.  이에 따라 올해 5월의 세계 평균 온도는 지난해에 이어 또 다시 사상 최고치를 경신했다. 미국 국립해양대기청(NOAA)는 18일(현지시간) 2015년 5월 지구 전체 육지와 바다 표면의 평균 온도는 20세기 평균 대비 0.87도 높았다고 발표했다. 이는 관측 기록이 존재하는 1880년 이래 136년간 5월 기온 중 사상 최고치다.  기존 기록은 작년 5월에 세워졌으며, 당시 온도는 20세기 평균 대비 0.79도 높았다. 지구온난화에 따라 지구가 점점 뜨거워지고 있음을 방증하는 수치다.  지구온난화의 영향으로 지난 5월의 육지와 바다의 평균온도는 역대 최고치를 또 다시 경신했다.지구온난화의 영향으로 지난 5월의 육지와 바다의 평균온도는 역대 최고치를 또 다시 경신했다. 올해 5월 지구 육지 표면 평균온도는 20세기 평균 대비 1.28도 높았으며, 바다 표면 평균온도는 20세기 평균 대비 0.72도 높았다. 육지 평균온도는 1880∼2015년 기간의 5월 중 2012년과 함께 공동 1위에 해당하며, 바다 표면 평균온도도 지난해의 최고기록을 갈아치웠다. 또 계절 구분에 따라 봄철(3∼5월)로 따지면 올해 3∼5월의 지구 전체·육지·바다 온도 평균은 각각 20세기 평균 대비 0.85도, 1.33도, 0.66도 높아 1880∼2015년 기간 중 최고치였다. 올해 1월부터 5월까지 지구의 평균 온도도 사상 최고인 것으로 나타났다. 올해 1∼5월 지구 전체·육지·바다 표면의 평균온도는 각각 20세기 평균 대비 0.85도, 1.42도, 0.63도 높아, 각각 2010년, 2007년, 2010년에 세워진 관측 사상 최고치 기록을 또 경신했다. [글로벌이코노믹] 노정용 기자 noja@

 

Studies had suggested that global warming slowed or paused 

since 1998. More thorough research shows the global warming 

“hiatus” likely never happened.

 

Even before this study appeared, 2014 ranked as the warmest year on record, according to NOAA.

You’ve probably read in recent years that global warming has slowed, or even paused. A handful of studies indicated this apparent pause, but more thorough research – published June 5, 2015 in the journal Science – suggests the so-called global warming hiatus was what some scientists are now calling “a temporary mirage.” Researchers report that – contrary to slowing or stopping – the Earth continued getting warmer at a rate very nearly like that predicted by climate models throughout the first early years of this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – charged with bringing climate change science results to a global audience – reported in 2013 that warming between the period of 1998 to 2012 was much slower than the period 1951 to 2012. In other words, according to the IPCC, Earth was still getting warmer, but not at the rate projected by climate models.  Now, however, it appears possible that the earlier results suggesting a hiatus resulted from a shift during the last couple of decades to greater use of buoys for measuring sea surface temperatures. Temperatures collected by the buoys were being used in the global temperature records maintained by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one of four major keepers of records on global temperature along with NASA, the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the UK Met Office. NOAA had recently increased its coverage of sea surface temperatures by 15% by adding buoys. Thomas Karl, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina and lead author on the new study in Science, said that buoys tend to give cooler readings than measurements taken from ships, which, by the way, take their measurements via the temperature of water taken in by a ship’s engine as a coolant.  So the apparent global warming hiatus might have been a temporary glitch in scientists’ understanding of the data being collected. Overall, it’s not easy to take Earth’s temperature. To do it, scientists have to combine hundreds of thousands of measurements from Earth’s land and oceans. Instruments on land, ships sea and ocean-going buoys, and orbiting satellites, all contribute to the temperature record. Scientists working with these data have to correct for differences in how each type of instrument measures temperature. Karl and his team took into account the fact that buoys read colder temperatures than do ships in the same places by adding 0.12°C to each buoy measurement. Then they combined their new ocean data with improved calculations of air temperatures over land around the world, including from new land-based monitoring stations that extend into the Arctic, where observations have been sparse. And they also included observations from 2013 and 2014 (which, so far, holds the record as the warmest year on record).  They concluded that overall global surface warming during 2000–2014 was 0.116°C per decade, more than twice the estimated 0.039°C per decade that IPCC had reported for the period beginning in 1998.  Karl said that the warming rate would likely go up once his team calculates the temperature increase for the entirety of the Arctic, which is known to be warming rapidly. Karl said: The bottom line is that the IPCC reported that the rate of warming was less in the last 15 years than it was in the previous 30–60 years. That is no longer valid according to our data. A June 4 article in Nature pointed out: NOAA’s updated temperature record still shows cooler observed conditions than those projected by most climate models for the same period. But Karl says that the warming trend is clear up to the end of 2014. Steven Sherwood, director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of South Wales, Australia, who not involved in the study, told EOS: The [new] data still show somewhat slower warming post-2000 than in the preceding decades, but the difference is no longer statistically significant, which means it is no longer justifiable to say that there was a ‘hiatus.’ Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, told EOS: The fact that such small changes to the analysis make the difference between a hiatus or not merely underlines how fragile a concept [the hiatus] was in the first place. This chart shows global temperature analysis since the 1880s – prior to the results of this new study – by the four major world temperature-measurers – NASA, NOAA, the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the UK Met Office. Via NASA GISS Bottom line: Studies reported by the IPCC in 2013 had suggested that global warming slowed or paused during the period of 1998 to 2012. More thorough research shows the global warming “hiatus” likely never happened, but instead was caused by a failure to account for cooler temperature readings collected by ocean buoys, whose presence in the oceans had increased during the same period. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus, Science DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa5632, June 4, 2015 Climate-change ‘hiatus’ disappears with new data, Nature, June 4, 2015 Global warming ‘hiatus’ never happened, study says, Eos, 96, doi:10/1029/2015EO03114, June 5, 2015 http://earthsky.org/earth/global-warming-hiatus-never-happened-study-says

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