"중국보다 인도에 투자하는 것이 더 낫다" India is making China look old
GDP 상승률 전망
중국 6.8%
인도 7.5% 상승
edited by kcontents
케이콘텐츠 편집
중국과 인도 금융시장이 모두 성장세를 보이고 있지만, 중국보다는 인도에 투자하는 것이 더 낫다는 주장이 제기됐다. 1일(미국시간) 아소카 부만 도이치에셋앤웰스매니지먼트 수석 투자 담당자는 리포트를 통해 올해 인도의 국내총생산(GDP)이 7.5% 상승할 것이라며 인도 투자가 유망하다고 진단했다. 인도의 GDP 상승률 전망은 중국이 6.8% 성장할 것이라는 전망보다 높은 수준으로 인도는 2000년 이후 빠른 성장을 지속하고 있다고 부만 담당자는 예상했다. 그는 인도 주식 시장이 중기와 장기적으로 상승할 것이라고 내다봤다. 나렌드라 모디 인도 총리가 2014년 당선되며 약속했던 것처럼 사회기반시설 투자와 노동, 법률, 텍스 개정에 연동해 증시가 강세를 보일 것이라는 분석이다. 그는 "인도 기업과 개인 가계의 GDP 대비 부채가 그리 높은 수준이 아니다"며 "중국과 인도가 유가 하락과 양적완화에 따른 이익을 보고 있지만, 인도에 미치는 긍정적인 영향이 더 크다"고 말했다. 이어 "중국의 수출 비율은 22.4%인 반면에 인도는 15%라는 점에서 글로벌 경기 의존도도 인도가 더 낮은 것으로 보인다"고 설명했다. 부만 담당자는 또 인도의 루피화가 다른 통화 대비 달러화 강세 국면에서 더 강한 회복력을 보이고 있다고 진단했다. (뉴욕=연합인포맥스) 신은실 특파원 esshin@yna.co.kr |
India is making China look old
China does not need any more tutoring on the subject of capitalism. The stock markets there follow current western logic as a matter of routine: good economic figures are good, but bad figures are good too because they promise a more caring central bank. In the first quarter, China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since 2008, 7%. Even this figure is hard to square with the quarterly figures of Chinese companies. But anyone who approaches Chinese stock markets on the basis of fundamental analysis has lost already. And has ceded the field to those domestic private investors who in March alone opened more than four million new securities portfolios and whose securities purchases on credit already account for 1.8% of gross domestic product (GDP). Their buying frenzy has caused the Shanghai A Share Index to double in price in nine months and has recently spread to the better-established Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This can be interpreted as a catchup process, since China’s stocks were valued with a price- to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 102 as recently as mid- 2014. Now it is 20, commensurate with the emerging-economy average. Nevertheless, this aggregate view obscures the fact that 36% of the index is allotted to the financial sector, which has a P/E ratio of only 12, which in turn means a P/E ratio of 36 for the industrial sector. Hopes for Chinese monetary and fiscal stimuli in the second half of the year are the main reason why investors are pouncing on these stocks despite generally bearish macro India’s stock market is profiting from advance praise too. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been in office since May 2014, is expected to advance structural improvements in the land of eternal hope – through labor-market, common-law and tax- system reforms. The aim is also to improve the infrastructure that up to now has prevented India from challenging China as the workbench of the world. While both countries are profiting from cheap oil and the scope for easing monetary policy, India has several advantages over its rival: a significantly younger population, better debt ratios3 and a lesser dependence on the global economy (with an export ratio of 15% vs. 22.4% for China). In 2015, it could grow faster than China for the first time. These are all reasons why we currently favor Indian stocks even more than Chinese. http://www.thecorner.eu/financial-markets/india-making-china-look-old/45425/ |
edited by kcontents
"from past to future"
데일리건설뉴스 construction news
콘페이퍼 conpaper
.
