해외 기관의 한국 경제성장률 전망 South Korea Hops on Rate-Cut Bandwagon With Quarter-Point Move

source bloomberg

12일 블룸버그에 따르면 지난달 이후 27개 해외 경제예측기관이 

내놓은 한국의 올해 국내총생산(GDP) 증가율 전망치는 평균 3.4%다.

South Korea Hops on Rate-Cut Bandwagon With Quarter-Point

Move

by Jiyeun LeeCynthia Kim (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate to an all-time low to prevent the nation from falling into deflation and support economic growth. The Bank of Korea lowered the seven-day repurchase rate to 1.75 percent, as forecast by just two of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. With South Korea’s inflation at slowest pace since 1999 and exports falling, the BOK joins more than 20 other central banks in loosening policy this year, including its Thai counterpart, which unexpectedly cut rates Wednesday. Governor Lee Ju Yeol told parliament on Feb. 23 that the central bank would probably have to respond through interest rates if the economic situation deteriorated. “The BOK would’ve been worried about falling behind the pace of global easing by holding the benchmark rate unchanged,” Park Sang Hyun, a Seoul-based economist for HI Investment & Securities Co. who correctly forecast the rate cut, said after the decision. “Further rate cuts will depend on economic data to be released from now.” South Korea’s won weakened 0.4 percent to 1,131.20 per dollar at 10:18 a.m. in Seoul on Thursday after the decision. It’s fallen 3.5 percent against the U.S. currency this year and depreciated 2.1 percent against the Japanese yen. The yield on three-year government bonds has been below the benchmark rate since March 3 and is was last at 1.86 percent. ‘Political Reasons’ Kim Moo Sung, head of the ruling Saenuri party, said Wednesday that aggressive policies by the authorities were needed because quantitative easing by the European Central Bank suggested a global currency war is going on, Infomax reported. With bond yields below the policy rate, the market is already expecting a rate cut, Kim said. “Political reasons played a big role in today’s cut,” Yoon Yeo Sam, a fixed income analyst at Daewoo Securities, said after the cut. “The BOK is realizing that the first quarter growth is clearly weaker than they had expected, and that low inflation won’t go away anytime soon.” The central bank lowered the rate by 50 basis points in two steps in 2014. Figures released last week showed consumer prices in Asia’s fourth-biggest economy rose 0.5 percent in February from a year earlier, while exports shrank 3.4 percent, the biggest drop since February 2013. Finance Minister Choi Kyung Hwan said this week that the pace of South Korea’s economic growth is weak, although a recovery is taking place. Growth Outlook The central bank lowered its 2015 growth outlook to 3.4 percent from 3.9 percent on January and cut its inflation projection to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent. It will revise the economic forecasts in April. Rising household debt has been a concern for the central bank, with Governor Lee that the “sharp increase” in debt was one of the reasons for keeping policy unchanged a month ago. “A rate cut can lead to more household debt, and policy measures to reduce risks from higher debt offers room for monetary policy,” Stephen Lee, a Seoul-based economist at Samsung Securities Co., said before the decision. The Financial Services Commission said Feb. 26 that it planned to convert 20 trillion won of household debt this year to fixed-rate, amortized loans. Data released the same day showed South Korea’s household debt rose to a record 1,089 trillion won at the end of last year. To contact the reporters on this story: Jiyeun Lee in Seoul at jlee1029@bloomberg.net; Cynthia Kim in Seoul at ckim170@bloomberg.net http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/bank-of-korea-unexpectedly-cuts-key-rate-to-record-low

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