인도시대 도래하나? 경제성장률, 중국 추월 India Growth Now Beats China
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옛날 얘기였던가? 인도의 경제는 지금 중국 보다 더 빨리 성장하고 있다. 인도의 2014년 3분기의 경제 성장률(11월~12월 포함)은 7.5%로 상승했다. 중국의 7.3%를 앞지른 것이다. 1분기 6.5% 2분기 8.2%에 이어 기록한 성장률로 2014년도 인도의 경제성장률은 7.4%다. 반면에 중국은 7.1%에 그쳤다. 2년전 홍콩의 HDBC 애널리스트는 인도를 "헐떡거리는 코끼리"에 비유했다. 세계은행은 최근 ‘2015년 글로벌 경제 전망 보고서’를 통해 2017년 인도가 중국의 성장률을 넘어설 것이라고 관측했다. 2017년 중국 경제성장률은 6.9%로 주춤하는 반면 인도 경제성장률은 7.0%로 도약할 것으로 예상했다. 올해 인도 경제성장률 전망치는 6.3%에서 6.4%로 신흥국 중 유일하게 상향 조정됐다. 블룸버그 통신은 “2016년 인도가 중국을 추월할 것”이라며 “2016년 인도의 경제성장률은 6.5%, 중국은 6.3%”로 예상했다. 통신은 “지금 상태로라면 중국보다 인도가 더 발전할 가능성이 크다”면서도 “인도가 중국보다 낙후한 사회기반시설, 관료주의 개선을 이뤄야 경제 분야에서 우월성을 입증할 수 있을 것”이라고 덧붙였다. 황기철 콘페이퍼 에디터 |
Contributor It’s been a long time coming, but India is now growing faster than China. India’s third quarter GDP — which calculates October to December output — rose 7.5% on the year, compared to 7.3% in China. This follows 8.2% growth in the second quarter and 6.5% in the first, bringing year-to-date growth to 7.4%. By comparison, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.1% this calendar year. Two years ago, an HSBC analyst called India a “gasping elephant”. Since September of 2013, India has become the darling of emerging market investors. The bull market is now a year and a half old, but this month’s budget announcement will set the tone for a while. India’s government is forecasting 7.4% growth in fiscal year 2014, which ends on March 31. The current trends in economic activities data likely means another uptick in fiscal year 2015-2016 GDP at 7.8%, Barclays Capital analysts led by Siddhartha Sanyal said Monday from Mumbai. India’s fiscal calendar begins in April, which is the start of the Hindu new year. For economic data, 2015-16 begins April 1. India’s economy is firing on all four cylinders. India is all about small business. The country’s roadsides are dominated by small store fronts. Consumers are shopping, but also putting money in the bank as the economy expands. (Photo by Jackie O. Cruz/Forbes) Manufacturing has now grown 5.4% year to date, versus first half growth of 1.8%. The services sector GDP is up 10.7% year to date ending Dec. 31, relative to the first half estimate of 6.9%. On the expenditure front, government consumption growth and investment growth are both on the rise. Private consumption is expected to improve at a steady pace, BarCap said in its note to clients today. How High Is Too High? The Wisdom Tree India (EPI) exchange traded fund has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by over 220 basis points so far this year. It’s also beating the S&P 500, with State Street’s SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF down 0.32%. Even the European Central Bank is no match for the Indian dynamic duo of central banker Raghuram Rajan and prime minister Narendra Modi. The Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK) ETF is up 2.18%. Last week, The Reserve Bank of India left policy rates unchanged at 7.75%, but cut its reserve requirements by to 21.5% of deposits. That allows banks to lend more capital, rather than keep it locked away. Rajan is likely awaiting news on the Modi budget, as well as inflation figures, before taking decisions on rates. Inflation has declined, “but the key variable for Rajan is India’s fiscal outlook,” says Jan Dehn, an economist with the Ashmore Group, a $70 billion emerging markets asset manager in London. The coming budget for fiscal year 2015, which begins in April, gets revealed to the market on Feb. 28. Investors will see this as a litmus test on Modi’s ability to lead on economic policy and reform. Fortunately for Modi, India’s economic data has provided him with some lift off. He might not need to provide for extra stimulus this year like many in the government want, especially if commodity prices remain where they are now. He might be able to hold off spending until next year. Modi is pretty religious about cutting taxes and keeping the deficit in check in his first term. Supply siders might like tax exemptions in this year’s budget. Taxes are expected to be reworked for individuals and the corporate tax rate may get an update, Finance Ministry officials told the Economic Times this week. India’s corporate tax rate has been at 30% since 2008. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has expressed concern that some Indian companies were relocating to Mauritius and Dubai because of taxes. He said that making India a “low tax economy” was part of Modi’s “Make in India” agenda. Modi was elected in May. A tight fiscal situation has prevented the government from making the kind of sweeping tax cuts that investors like to see, however. Moreover, lower oil prices are good news for India from a top-down perspective. India’s deficits are mainly due to oil and gold imports. The fall in oil prices has given Jaitley room to make farm subsidy reforms that could cut government expenditures on fertilizer and food subsidies. These reductions could reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.6% of GDP from an estimated 4.1% in the 2014 fiscal year ending next month. That’s a moving target for Modi and Rajan, but it is one they’d both like to hit this year. The bottom up view on India is a bit different. How much room does this market have to move higher? “I think the first leg of the bull market is now complete,” says Nikhil Bhatnagar, a VP of Asian equities at Auerbach Grayson in New York. “We need a show of hands. Valuations have rapidly re-priced to up-cycle earnings and consensus has gotten extremely bullish…there is nothing stocks can do but disappoint.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/02/09/india-growth-now-beats-china/ |
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