국제유가, 북미 새 무역협정(NAFTA)에 급등 Crude Oil Prices Aims at 2018 High, Gold at Risk After NAFTA Deal

 

Crude Oil Prices Aims at 2018 High, Gold at Risk After NAFTA Deal

by  Ilya Spivak ,  Sr. Currency Strategist 

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

US, Canada and Mexico reach last-minute deal on NAFTA renegotiation

Crude oil prices aim at 2018 high amid swelling market-wide risk appetite

Gold prices may resume descent as rising bond yields undermine appeal

Quarter-end capital flows seemed to account for Friday’s moves in key commodities. An upturn in sentiment-geared assets saw crude oil pricesmarching higher alongside the bellwether S&P 500 stock index. Meanwhile, a pullback in the US Dollar helped buoy gold prices, although the benchmark currency still finished the day with a narrow gain as buyers continued to revel the aftermath of the FOMC rate decision.

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국제유가, 북미 새 무역협정(NAFTA)에 급등 WTI, 4년만에 75달러 회복   국제유가는 1일(현지시간) 급등세를 보였다. 이날 뉴욕상업거래소(NYMEX)에서 11월 인도분 서부 텍사스산 원유(WTI)는 전 거래일보다 배럴당 2.8%(2.05달러) 오른 75.30달러에 거래를 마쳤다. 종가 기준으로 2014년 11월 이후 최고치다. 런던 선물거래소(ICE)의 11월물 브렌트유도 비슷한 시각 배럴당 3.06%(2.53달러) 상승한 85.26달러에 거래되고 있다. 브렌트유 역시 2014년 11월 이후 최고 수준이다. 이날 유가는 미국이 북미자유무역협정(NAFTA·나프타)을 대체할 새로운 무역협정을 멕시코에 이어 캐나다와도 타결했다는 소식에 힘을 받았다. 무역갈등은 성장에 대한 우려를 낳고, 이는 곧 유가 수요에 발목을 잡을 수 있다는 우려로 확대돼왔는데 나프타 개정협상이 타결되면서 투자 심리가 호전된 것이다.   도널드 트럼프 미국 행정부가 11월 초 복원 예정인 이란에 대한 원유제재도 지속적인 유가 상승 압박 요인으로 작용하고 있다. 특히 중국의 국영 석유화학기업 시노펙(중국석유화공그룹)이 트럼프 미 행정부의 이란 제재 복원을 앞두고 이란산 원유 수입을 절반으로 줄였다는 소식도 유가 상승 요인으로 작용했다. JTD 에너지 시큐리티의 수석전략가인 존 드리스콜은 "필연적이지는 않더라도 배럴당 유가 100달러가 가능할 것으로 보인다"고 말했다. 국제 금값은 미-캐나다 협상타결로 안전자산에 대한 선호가 다소 떨어지면서 하락했다. 뉴욕상품거래소(COMEX)에서 12월 인도분 금값은 전 거래일보다 온스당 0.4%(4.5달러) 내린 1,191.70달러를 기록했다. (뉴욕=연합뉴스) 이귀원 특파원 lkw777@yna.co.kr

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CRUDE OIL AIMS HIGHER, GOLD AT RISK AFTER NAFTA DEAL

Looking ahead, an eleventh-hour NAFTA renegotiation deal between the US, Canada and Mexico is likely to dominate the spotlight. The new framework – renamed the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” or USMCA – ends over a year of contentious talks. A joint statement from US and Canadian officials described it as a “playbook for future trade deals”.

Importantly, the pact still needs to be signed by the three countries’ leaders and ratified by their legislatures. In the case of the United States, that will almost certainly follow midterm elections in November that might significantly alter the makeup of one or both houses of Congress. How that might impact the deal’s chances of implementation is as-yet unclear.

 

Still, the apparent end of hostilities on at least one front in the US-led global trade war has understandably lifted the markets’ spirits. Shares rose in Asia Pacific trade and US stock index futures are pointing sharply higher. That has scope to weigh on gold as bond yields rise, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. Crude oil will probably remain well-supported in the meanwhile.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices retraced higher to retest former range support in the 1189.76-1193.60 area, which conspicuously held as new resistance. Downward resumption from here sees the next downside barrier in the 1160.37-73.23 area, with a breach of that that exposing the December 2016 swing low at 1122.81. Alternatively, a daily close back above 1193.60 area clears the way for a test of downtrend resistance currently capped at 1215.65.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices look poised to challenge critical resistance in the 75.00-77.31 area, a region marked by the former support at swing lows recorded between August 2011 and June 2012. A push above that paves the way to probe above the $80/bbl figure. The chart inflection point at 72.88 has been recast as support, with a move back below that opening the door for a retest of the 70.15-41 zone.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2018/10/01/Crude-Oil-Prices-Aims-at-2018-High-Gold-at-Risk-After-NAFTA-Deal.html

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