원/달러 환율, 22개월 만 최저 기록...왜 The U.S. currency is off about 10% from its highs of the year and stands near more than a two-year low

Why US dollar is under pressure

3 min read . Updated: 09 Nov 2020, 11:22 AM IST

A potentially divided US govt with Republicans in control of the Senate may mean a smaller fiscal stimulus package from lawmakers, increasing pressure on the US central bank to ramp up its bond-buying

An increasingly bearish picture is unfolding for the U.S. dollar, which has suffered its worst week since March on signs that Federal Reserve money printing rather than government spending may be deployed to bolster the economy in the aftermath of Tuesday's elections.

Place de la bourse

미 환율의 하방 압력 공화당이 상원을 장악하고 있는 가운데 잠재적으로 분열된 미국 정부는 의원들로부터 재정 부양책이 축소되어 미 중앙은행에 대한 채권 매입 압력을 증가시키는 것을 의미할 수도 있다. 정부 지출이 아닌 연방준비제도이사회(Fed·연준)의 자금이 화요일 선거의 여파로 경기 부양에 투입될 수 있다는 조짐으로 3월 이후 최악의 한 주를 맞고 있는 미국 달러화에 대해 점점 더 약세 국면이 전개되고 있다. 공화당이 상원을 장악하고 있는 가운데 잠재적으로 분열된 미국 정부는 국회의원들로부터 재정 부양책을 축소함으로써 미 중앙은행에 대한 채권 매입과 올해 달러화를 짓누르고 있는 다른 경제 지원 정책을 강화하라는 압력을 증가시킬 수도 있다. 주요 방송사들은 조 바이든 민주당 후보를 미국 대선의 승자로 선언하면서 앞으로 4년간 누가 백악관을 운영할지에 대한 며칠간의 상반된 보도가 있은 후 어느 정도 확실성을 제공했다. 이와 동시에 공화당이 확보한 조지아 의석 2곳에서 1월 결선투표가 치러질 경우 민주당이 상원에서 더 큰 영향력을 행사할 수 있어 일부 투자자들이 달러를 부정적인 것으로 간주하고 있는 대규모 재정 부양책에 대한 주장이 힘을 받을 수 있다. 이러한 새로운 우려는 2020년 대부분 동안 달러화 가치를 떨어뜨리고 일부 투자자들은 최저 금리와 향후 수년간의 미국 정부의 대규모 지출에 대한 기대감 등 세계 주요 외환보유액으로서의 지위에 대해 걱정하게 만든 이슈들 위에 올라 있다. 미국 통화는 연중 최고치에서 10% 정도 떨어져 있고 2년 이상 최저치에 근접해 있다. 그것의 감소는 일부 투자자들이 금과 비트코인과 같은 달러 대안으로 보고 있는 자산들의 랠리를 증가시켰는데 이는 이달 들어 지금까지 각각 4%, 12% 상승했다. 원/달러 환율 추이 9일 원/달러 환율이 1,120원 아래로 떨어져 약 22개월 만에 최저를 기록했다. 이날 서울 외환시장에서 원/달러 환율은 전 거래일 종가보다 6.5원 내린 1,113.9원으로 마감했다. (서울=연합뉴스) 박영석 기자 zeroground@yna.co.kr 황기철 콘페이퍼 에디터 Ki Chul Hwang Conpaper editor curator

edited by kcontents

A potentially divided U.S. government with Republicans in control of the Senate may mean a smaller fiscal stimulus package from lawmakers, increasing pressure on the U.S. central bank to ramp up its bond-buying and other economically supportive policies that have weighed on the dollar this year.

Major networks on Saturday declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of the U.S. presidential election, offering some certainty after days of conflicting reports about who might run the White House for the next four years.

At the same time, Democrats could still win more sway in the Senate if runoff races in two Republican-held seats in Georgia go their way in January, bolstering the case for a larger fiscal stimulus package that has been viewed by some investors as dollar-negative.

Those fresh concerns come on top of issues that have dragged the dollar lower for most of 2020 and led some investors to fret about its status as the world's dominant reserve currency, including expectations of rock-bottom interest rates and massive U.S. government spending for years to come.

The U.S. currency is off about 10% from its highs of the year and stands near more than a two-year low. Its decline has buoyed rallies in assets some investors see as dollar alternatives, such as gold and bitcoin, which are up 4% and 12% so far this month, respectively.

DailyFX

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"If you had to write a playbook that would get people to say 'I need an alternative to the dollar,' this whole process fits that story," said Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank was committed to keeping its bond purchases steady at $120 billion a month, but he also said lawmakers will likely need to provide more fiscal stimulus to help the economy recover from the coronavirus-fueled contraction earlier this year.

More of the burden for supporting the economy could shift to the Fed if a fiscal stimulus package is delayed or smaller than needed, some investors said. That's a potential negative for the dollar, as some quantitative easing policies are tantamount to printing money.

"The Fed can surprise us," said Jack McIntyre, fixed income portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. "They can do a lot to provide liquidity to the market, to push back the solvency risks that will come about if we don't get a fiscal package."

McIntyre has reduced his dollar exposure in favor of emerging markets and investment grade government bonds.

Dovish Fed

A weaker dollar would likely be welcomed by many U.S. companies, as it makes it cheaper for multinationals to convert earnings back into their home currency while boosting the competitiveness of U.S. products abroad.

But it also pushes up the value of other currencies, complicating the efforts of economies like the euro zone and Japan to boost growth and potentially leading other central banks to cheapen their own currencies in response.

The euro has gained around 6% against the dollar this year, while the Japanese yen is up around 5%.

Momtchil Pojarliev, head of currencies at BNP Asset Management, believes the dollar will sink to fresh lows over the next three months.

"The Fed is very dovish and is going to stay dovish," he said. "The bigger the stimulus, the worse for the dollar."

Some don't agree with the bearish sentiment on the dollar. John Floyd, head of macro strategy at Record Currency Management, argues that while the Fed has said it will keep asset purchases at current levels, the European Central Bank recently signaled it may increase its economic support in December.

"That's a big difference," he said.

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