파키스탄 일대일로에 올인하더니 결국..."IMF 구제 신청" VIDEO: Pakistan finalises $6bn IMF bailout package

Pakistan finalises $6bn IMF bailout package

Pakistan will receive funds over 39 months, as structural reform planned to stabilise deficits and reorient economy.

by Asad Hashim 

Islamabad, Pakistan - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have agreed on terms for a $6bn bailout package, to be disbursed over a span of more than three years, bringing an end to months of negotiations with the international lender.

IMF mission holds discussions with Pakistan on economic developments/Samaa TV

파키스탄 일대일로에 올인하더니 결국..."IMF 구제 신청" 중국 책임론도 3년간 60억달러 수혈 예정 中서 빌린 400억弗 감당 못해 세계銀·ADB에도 손 벌릴 듯     경제위기를 겪고 있는 파키스탄이 국제통화기금(IMF)으로부터 3년여 동안 60억달러(약 7조980억원)의 구제금융을 받는다. 파키스탄의 경제 위기는 중국의 일대일로(一帶一路: 육상·해상 실크로드) 사업에 참여하다 겪게 된 것이어서 중국 책임론도 나오고 있다. IMF는 지난 12일 웹사이트 성명을 통해 “파키스탄 당국과 3년간 구제금융 프로그램을 놓고 잠정 합의에 도달했으며 39개월간 60억달러의 구제금융을 지원할 예정”이라고 발표했다. 구제금융 합의안은 IMF 이사회 승인을 거쳐 최종 확정된다. IMF는 “파키스탄은 빈약한 성장, 높은 인플레이션, 과도한 부채, 약한 국가 지위로 어려운 경제 환경에 직면해 있다”고 진단했다. 또 “면세 폐지, 특례 축소, 조세행정 개선 등을 통해 공공 부채를 감축하도록 할 것”이라고 밝혔다. 연쇄반응 나올까? 파키스탄이 IMF에 손을 벌리게 된 것은 620억달러 규모 인프라 사업의 영향이 컸다. 파키스탄과 중국은 2015년 중국 신장위구르자치구와 파키스탄 과다르항을 철도, 송유관 등으로 잇는 사업을 추진키로 했다. 이를 위해 중국에서 400억달러를 빌렸다. 하지만 이 같은 과도한 빚 때문에 물가 상승, 파키스탄 루피화 하락, 외환보유액 감소 등의 위기를 겪고 있다. 파키스탄 정부는 그간 IMF 구제금융을 주저해왔다. 이미 IMF에 약 58억달러를 빚진 상태인 데다 일각에서 미국의 영향력에 대한 우려를 제기해서다. 이 때문에 지난해 11월 사우디아라비아와 아랍에미리트(UAE)로부터 각각 60억달러와 62억달러 규모의 차관 또는 원유를 지원받기로 했으며, 지난 2월엔 중국으로부터 25억달러를 긴급 지원받았다.' 하지만 이런 정도로는 경제를 살리는 데 역부족이었다. 로이터통신에 따르면 파키스탄 외환보유액은 2개월간 수입 대금을 간신히 감당할 수 있는 수준인 것으로 알려졌다. 압둘 하피즈 샤이크 파키스탄 재무장관은 “향후 세계은행과 아시아개발은행 등으로부터도 3년간 20억∼30억달러를 더 빌릴 계획”이라고 말했다. Will Pakistan gain from IMF bailout edited by kcontents 파키스탄은 IMF 구제금융을 계기로 각종 경제개혁 조치를 추진할 예정이다. 특히 기존 부분변동 환율제 대신 시장결정 환율제를 도입할 계획이다. 앞서 IMF는 파키스탄에 환율제를 바꾸라고 여러 차례 촉구했다. IMF는 “시장결정 환율제는 파키스탄 금융 부문의 기능을 돕고 경제 자원 배분을 효율화할 것”이라고 밝혔다. 선한결 기자 always@hankyung.com 한국경제

edited by kcontents

The agreement was confirmed by the IMF which added that the funds would be disbursed over 39 months.

"Pakistan is facing a challenging economic environment, with lacklustre growth, elevated inflation, high indebtedness, and a weak external position," said Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, the head of the IMF's mission to Pakistan, said in the statement.

"This reflects the legacy of uneven and procyclical economic policies in recent years aiming to boost growth, but at the expense of rising vulnerabilities and lingering structural and institutional weaknesses."

Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Prime Minister Imran Khan's adviser on finance, said on Sunday that "after negotiations over many months, Pakistan and the IMF have reached a staff-level agreement".

The IMF said the programme of structural reforms will target increasing government revenues and reducing spending, bringing down the primary fiscal deficit - which excludes development spending - to 0.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Pakistan's upcoming budget.

The overall fiscal deficit currently stands at roughly 1.9 percent of the GDP, according to central bank data.

The programme will include "tax policy revenue mobilisation measures to eliminate exemptions, curtail special treatments, and improve tax administration".

It will also target Pakistan's loss-making state-owned enterprises and the country's energy sector, long plagued by structural issues that have led to a burden of heavy subsidies on the government.

The agreement will now be reviewed by the IMF's management and board, and approval will be "subject to the timely implementation of prior actions and confirmation of international partners' financial commitments", the IMF said.

Shaikh said this agreement would open up at least $2bn in additional financing from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Struggling economy

Pakistan's economy has been struggling since last year with spiralling current account and fiscal deficits, and steepening inflation in the last three months.

The large trade deficit has prompted authorities to devalue the Pakistani rupee by as much as 24 percent in the last year.

In March, the country's central bank revised its GDP growth target down to a sluggish 3.5 percent, from the original target of around six percent.

A tightening of monetary policy, with interest rates raised to 10.75 percent in March, has seen some import substitution and slowing demand, with the trade deficit dropping by 13.1 percent to roughly $26.2bn in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, central bank data shows.

In April, consumer price inflation (CPI) stood at 8.8 percent, up from roughly 3.8 percent at the same time last year, according to the country's Bureau of Statistics.

Pakistan has availed 12 IMF stabilisation programmes and bailouts since 1988, totalling roughly $18.9bn in funds drawn, according to IMF data.

The country's last bailout, taken in 2013, was worth roughly $6.6bn, with the programme ending three years ago.

 

Pakistan set to seek up to $12bn loan, its 13th IMF bailout/Defense News

eidted by kcontents

'Severe contraction' expected

"There are two legs on which every IMF programme walks: the macroeconomic adjustments of getting the currency and deficits right, and the other is the structural transformation of the economy, which targets state-owned enterprises, improving competitiveness and other steps," Khurram Husain, business editor at Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, told Al Jazeera.

"Pakistan has had a good track record of doing rudimentary macroeconomic adjustments, but it never gets quite beyond that."

     

Husain said the programme would extract a steep cost in the short term, as reforms were being put in place.

"There will be severe contraction of the economy, plummeting investment and rising inflation [in the short term]," he said. "The programme will increase costs on the common citizenry, and raise the cost of doing business. It will administer costs and pain on both the citizen and investors."

Stock market analysts said Sunday's announcement would ease investor concerns by bringing an end to uncertainty around the IMF's programme.

"The IMF agreement will provide the much-needed confidence to both local and foreign investors in Pakistan as it will remove nine-month uncertainty on IMF funding," said Muhammad Suhail, CEO of Karachi-based Topline Securities.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA NEWS

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/pakistan-finalises-6bn-imf-bailout-package-190513090834006.html

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