GCC 장거리 철도 프로젝트는 계속 지연될 것인가? Will GCC rail projects face further delays?

Will GCC rail projects face further delays?

source Ventures Onsite

   메트로 프로젝트는 리야드 두바이 도하 등 중동 주요 도시에 건설이 진행 중이다.

UAE와 사우디는 철도망 건설을 계속해서 진행해오고 있다.

이런 야심찬 철도망 구축은 UAE 메트로 건설에서 알 수 있으며 두바이는 2016년에만 약 1억 9천만명이 철도를 이용했다. 

철도의 대중교통으로서의 인기를 실감하고 있다.

샤(Shah)와 하브샨(Habshan)을 루와이스항까지 연결하는 에티드철도 1단계 개통으로 도로에서 화물량을 운반하는 문제를 제거했다.

그것은 철도를 통한 물류 운반이 이득이 된다는 점으로 집중 조명됐다.

이럼에도 불구하고 철도 인프라 건설은 매우 비용이 많이 소요되며 2014년 오일 위기 이후 재구성된 GCC의 거시경제적 환경요소는 문제가 된 계획된 프로젝트와 중요한 개발계획들을 우선적으로 추진하게 했다.

이는 GCC철도프로젝트의 공정이 모두 연기된 것을 보면 명백하게 나타난다.

원래 2018년에 완공에서 2021년까지 공기를 연장하기로 2016년 장관급 회의에서 결정됐다.

전 GCC 철도 인프라의 공정의 지연은 사우디가 UAE 국경을 연결하는 지역만 건설하겠다는 사우디의 건설의지의 불명확성에서 기인하다.

사실상 이런 애매모호함은 사우디와 연결되는 UAE의 2단계 에티드 철도는 더이상 추진될 이유가 없어지게 했다. 결국 UAE와 같이 연결되는(철도가) 오만에도 별 혜택이 없었다.

그러나 그럼에도 불구하고 경제적 다양성을 살릴 수 있는 철도의 잠재력을 고려해 볼 때 GCC장거리철도 프로젝트는 완료되어야 할 것이다..

많은 관계자들은 현실적으로 이 메가 프로젝트가 빨라야 2025년 늦으면 2030년에 완료될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

Related Article

GCC 장거리 철도프로젝트, 2021년으로 공기연장 GCC railway completion date pushed back to 2021

http://conpaper.tistory.com/44647

황기철 콘페이퍼 에디터

Ki Chul Hwang, conpaper editor

by CW Guest Columnist on Mar 11, 2017 

With their potential to reconfigure trade corridors and dramatically improve metropolitan public transport, it’s no surprise that major railway and metro projects represent a growing priority for Gulf states, in concert with plans to drive economic development and diversification.

Metro projects are underway in key cities across the region, including Riyadh, Dubai, and Doha. Meanwhile, countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are continuing to make headway with their national railway networks.

Proof of concept comes from the UAE. Dubai Metro carried more than 190 million passenger rides in 2016, demonstrating the popularity of rail as a form of public transport. Meanwhile, the opening of Phase 1 of Etihad Rail, which links Shah and Habshan to the Port of Ruwais, removed significant truck traffic from the roads and, in doing so, highlighted the benefits of moving goods and material by rail.

Despite such upsides, the construction of rail infrastructure is expensive, and the GCC’s macroeconomic climate – recast by the post-2014 oil price decline – has brought the progress of planned projects, and the prioritisation of new developments, into question. Most obvious is the deferred delivery timeline of the GCC Railway Network. Originally slated for 2018, an updated target of 2021 was agreed upon following a ministerial-level meeting in 2016.

The timeline for the pan-regional rail infrastructure has been hampered by a lack of clarity from Saudi Arabia in terms of when it will build its portion of the network connecting with the UAE border, according to Helmut Scholze, partner at Roland Berger Middle East, a consultancy that specialises in transportation, civil economics, and infrastructure. In effect, this ambiguity meant that there was little point in the UAE’s Etihad Rail proceeding with its planned Phase 2, which would link to Saudi Arabia. In turn, there was less of an incentive for Oman to connect with the UAE, since it would not be able to connect to the kingdom – the GCC’s largest market.

Now, both the UAE and Oman are focusing on building rail sections that can be used to move aggregates and reduce heavy vehicle traffic on a domestic level, Scholze adds. Even so, given rail’s potential to facilitate economic diversification, he is confident that the GCC Railway Network will be completed.

Another industry source, who asked to remain anonymous, is also optimistic that the regional network will materialise, but questions the current delivery targets. “The earliest [completion date for the GCC Railway Network] will be 2025 but, if you look at it realistically, the most likely completion date will be 2030,” the source commented.

When it comes to alternatives to financing rail from state budgets, public-private partnership (PPP) agreements are unlikely to be feasible in the rail sector. The large amount of risk that corporate stakeholders would be expected to take on, coupled with a lack of proven market demand, make it difficult to attract private investment, according to Scholze. “If you don’t have an existing network, and demand projections are not [very] clear, it may be difficult to bring in investors for PPP,” he explains. Scholze believes a more viable option is for rail operators to develop diversified business models – such as non-fare box revenue streams – or a national rail company that integrates logistics and other services within its operations.

Successful models can be found on the international stage. In Hong Kong, metro developer, MTR, receives 60% of its revenue through non-fare box streams. In Germany, privatised national rail operator, Deutsche Bahn, has developed a logistics business that extends beyond rail alone.

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